scholarly journals Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Cieślik ◽  
Oleg Gurshev ◽  
Sarhad Hamza
Keyword(s):  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Trade Association ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Profit Shifting

AbstractThis paper investigates the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of British multinational firms in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association members across 2009–2019 using Bayesian model averaging. We find evidence that supports the existence and dynamic behavior of the East–West structure of FDI between three groups of countries: core-EU, Central and Eastern European economies (CEE), and the Nordics. Further, we document the importance of relative market size, urbanization, the rule of law in attaining horizontal FDI in the core-EU economies. In turn, infrastructure spending and enhanced political stability are the most important drivers for FDI in CEE (post-2000 accession). Finally, our results highlight the negative effects of the Eurozone crisis and Brexit anticipation on British OFDI activity in the region. The findings remain robust when accounting for potential MNE profit shifting to partners such as Ireland, Luxembourg, and alike.

scholarly journals Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Matteo Spada ◽  
Peter Burgherr
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
Accident Data

The accident risk of severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents in fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas) is analyzed. The full chain risk is assessed for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 28 Member States of the European Union (EU28) and non-OECD countries. Furthermore, for Coal, Chinese data are analysed separately for three different periods, i.e., 1994–1999, 2000–2008 and 2009–2016, due to different data sources, and highly incomplete data prior to 1994. A Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to investigate the risk and associated uncertainties of a comprehensive accident data set from the Paul Scherrer Institute’s ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). By means of BMA, frequency and severity distributions were established, and a final posterior distribution including model uncertainty is constructed by a weighted combination of the different models. The proposed approach, by dealing with lack of data and lack of knowledge, allows for a general reduction of the uncertainty in the calculated risk indicators, which is beneficial for informed decision-making strategies under uncertainty.

scholarly journals Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade: An Investigation with Bma for the European Union

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 19-22
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Beck
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Cultural Similarity

The empirical literature on determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) is vast and comprehensive, yet as the authors failed to properly account for model uncertainty it has brought inconsistent and conflicting results. To resolve this issue, Bayesian model averaging was applied to investigate the robustness of 48 potential determinants of bilateral IIT for the panel of 26 European Union countries over the 1999-2011 period. Application of BMA demonstrated that 11 of them are robust determinants of IIT, namely real GDP product, trade openness, membership in the European Union and the Euro area, corruption, and differences in factor abundance. Among the factors of production, the key role in the determination of IIT patterns can be assigned to the differences in human capital. Yet, transportation cost and cultural similarity have no impact on the IIT patterns.

scholarly journals Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Round-Tripping, and Inward FDI: Evidence from the Baltic Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 348
Author(s):  
Andrzej Cieślik ◽  
Oleg Gurshev
Keyword(s):  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Round Trip ◽  
Factor Endowments ◽  
Vertical Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
The Baltic

This paper studies the location choice of foreign multinational firms in the Baltic economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania using a knowledge-and-physical capital model across 2004–2017. We used the Bayesian model averaging estimation method to investigate a set of possible factors that drive inward FDI. Our analysis demonstrates that factor endowments play a dominant role in driving vertical foreign direct investment, while external market barriers generate “tariff-jumping” FDI. Our analysis quantifies the effects of round-trip FDI, European integration, and external bilateral free trade agreements vis-à-vis inward FDI in the Baltics.

scholarly journals Potential Growth in Asia and Its Determinants: An Empirical Investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Lanzafame
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
Actual Growth

This paper contributes to the literature on growth in Asia in several respects. I provide estimates of potential growth for 21 Asian economies using an aggregate supply model with time-varying parameters and a Kalman filtering methodology. My estimates indicate that the actual growth slowdown experienced by many of these economies in the 2000s is associated with a falling trajectory in potential growth. Relying on Bayesian model averaging, I select robust determinants of potential growth and find that the latter is driven by the technology gap, trade, tertiary education, and institutional quality, as well as by working-age population growth. Effective reforms in these areas can help counterbalance declines in potential growth in Asia. I also investigate the relationship between business cycle features and potential growth, finding that higher volatility in actual growth has significantly negative effects on potential growth. Thus, stabilization policies can have beneficial effects on Asian economies’ long-term growth performance.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE: AN INVESTIGATION WITH BMA FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Beck
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Cultural Similarity

The empirical literature on the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) is vast and comprehensive, yet as authors failed to properly account for model uncertainty it has brought inconsistent and conflicting results. To resolve this issue, Bayesian model averaging was applied to investigate the robustness of 48 potential determinants of bilateral IIT for the panel of 26 European Union countries over the 1999-2011 period. Application of BMA demonstrated that 11 of them are robust determinants of IIT, namely real GDP products, trade openness, membership in the European Union and the Euro area, corruption, and differences in factor abundance. Among the factors of production, the key role in the determination of IIT patterns can be assigned to the differences in human capital. Yet, transportation cost and cultural similarity have no impact on the IIT patterns.

scholarly journals The left-liberal skew of Western media

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil O.W. Kirkegaard ◽  
Jonatan Pallesen ◽  
Emil Elgaard ◽  
Noah Carl
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Relative Preference ◽  
Political Views ◽  
Social Liberalism ◽  
Western Media

We gathered survey data on journalists’ political views in 17 Western countries. We then matched these data to outcomes from national elections, and constructed metrics of journalists’ relative preference for different political parties. Compared to the general population of voters, journalists prefer parties that have more left-wing positions overall (r’s -.47 to -.53, depending on the metric used), and that are associated with certain ideologies, namely environmentalism, feminism, social liberalism, socialism, and support for the European Union. We used Bayesian model averaging to assess the validity of the predictors in multivariate models. We found that, of the ideology tags in our dataset, ‘conservative’ (negative), ‘nationalist’ (negative) and ‘green’ (positive) were the most consistent predictors with nontrivial effect sizes. We also computed estimates of the skew of journalists' political views in different countries. Overall, our results indicate that the Western media has a left-liberal skew.

Selecting Predictors by Using Bayesian Model Averaging in Bridge Models

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Bencivelli ◽  
Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino ◽  
Gianluca Moretti
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Bridge Models
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