INVOLVEMENT LOAD HYPOTHESIS PLUS

The present meta-analysis aimed to improve on Involvement Load Hypothesis (ILH) by incorporating it into a broader framework that predicts incidental vocabulary learning. Studies testing the ILH were systematically collected and 42 studies meeting our inclusion criteria were analyzed. The model-selection approach was used to determine the optimal statistical model (i.e., a set of predictor variables) that best predicts learning gains. Following previous findings, we investigated whether the prediction of the ILH improved by (a) examining the influence of each level of individual ILH components (need, search, and evaluation), (b) adopting optimal operationalization of the ILH components and test format grouping, and (c) including other empirically motivated variables. Results showed that the resulting models explained a greater variance in learning gains. Based on the models, we created incidental vocabulary learning formulas. Using these formulas, one can calculate the effectiveness index of activities to predict their relative effectiveness more accurately on incidental vocabulary learning.

A Bayesian model selection approach for mediation analysis

Mediation analysis is a powerful tool for discovery of causal relationships. We describe a Bayesian model selection approach to mediation analysis that is implemented in our bmediatR software. Using simulations, we show that bmediatR performs as well or better than established methods including the Sobel test, while allowing greater flexibility in both model specification and in the types of inference that are possible. We applied bmediatR to genetic data from mice and human cell lines to demonstrate its ability to derive biologically meaningful findings. The Bayesian model selection framework is extensible to support a wide variety of mediation models.

Tolerance intervals in statistical software and robustness under model misspecification

A tolerance interval is a statistical interval that covers at least 100ρ% of the population of interest with a 100(1−α)% confidence, where ρ and α are pre-specified values in (0, 1). In many scientific fields, such as pharmaceutical sciences, manufacturing processes, clinical sciences, and environmental sciences, tolerance intervals are used for statistical inference and quality control. Despite the usefulness of tolerance intervals, the procedures to compute tolerance intervals are not commonly implemented in statistical software packages. This paper aims to provide a comparative study of the computational procedures for tolerance intervals in some commonly used statistical software packages including JMP, Minitab, NCSS, Python, R, and SAS. On the other hand, we also investigate the effect of misspecifying the underlying probability model on the performance of tolerance intervals. We study the performance of tolerance intervals when the assumed distribution is the same as the true underlying distribution and when the assumed distribution is different from the true distribution via a Monte Carlo simulation study. We also propose a robust model selection approach to obtain tolerance intervals that are relatively insensitive to the model misspecification. We show that the proposed robust model selection approach performs well when the underlying distribution is unknown but candidate distributions are available.

Patterns of selection against centrosome amplification in human cell lines

The presence of extra centrioles, termed centrosome amplification, is a hallmark of cancer. The distribution of centriole numbers within a cancer cell population appears to be at an equilibrium maintained by centriole overproduction and selection, reminiscent of mutation-selection balance. It is unknown to date if the interaction between centriole overproduction and selection can quantitatively explain the intra- and inter-population heterogeneity in centriole numbers. Here, we define mutation-selection-like models and employ a model selection approach to infer patterns of centriole overproduction and selection in a diverse panel of human cell lines. Surprisingly, we infer strong and uniform selection against any number of extra centrioles in most cell lines. Finally we assess the accuracy and precision of our inference method and find that it increases non-linearly as a function of the number of sampled cells. We discuss the biological implications of our results and how our methodology can inform future experiments.

Multiple structural breaks in cointegrating regressions: a model selection approach

In this paper, we propose a new approach to model structural change in cointegrating regressions using penalized regression techniques. First, we consider a setting with known breakpoint candidates and show that a modified adaptive lasso estimator can consistently estimate structural breaks in the intercept and slope coefficient of a cointegrating regression. Second, we extend our approach to a diverging number of breakpoint candidates and provide simulation evidence that timing and magnitude of structural breaks are consistently estimated. Third, we use the adaptive lasso estimation to design new tests for cointegration in the presence of multiple structural breaks, derive the asymptotic distribution of our test statistics and show that the proposed tests have power against the null of no cointegration. Finally, we use our new methodology to study the effects of structural breaks on the long-run PPP relationship.