Several Populations of Sunspot Group Numbers – Resolving a Conundrum

<p>The long-standing disparity between the sunspot number record and the Hoyt and Schatten (1998, H&S) Group Sunspot Number series was initially resolved by the Clette et al. (2014) revision of the sunspot number and the group number series. The revisions resulted in a flurry of dissenting group number series while the revised sunspot number series was generally accepted. Thus, the disparity persisted and confusion reigned, with the choice of solar activity dataset continuing to be a free parameter. A number of workshops and follow-up collaborative efforts by the community have not yet brought clarity. We review here several lines of evidence that validate the original revisions put forward by Clette et al. (2014) and suggest that the perceived conundrum no longer need to delay acceptance and general use of the revised series. We argue that the solar observations constitute several distinct populations with different properties which explain the various discontinuities in the series. This is supported by several proxies: diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, geomagnetic signature of the strength of the heliomagnetic field, and variation of radionuclides. The Waldmeier effect shows that the sunspot number scale has not changed over the last 270 years and a mistaken scale factor between observers Wolf and Wolfer explains the disparity beginning in 1882 between the sunspot number and the H&S reconstruction of the group number. Observations with replica of 18th century telescopes (with similar optical flaws) validate the early sunspot number scale; while a reconstruction of the group number with monthly resolution (with many more degrees of freedom) validate the size of Solar Cycle 11 given by the revised series that the dissenting series fail to meet. Based on the evidence at hand, we urge the working groups tasked with producing community-vetted and agreed upon solar activity series to complete their work expeditiously.</p>

Variations of interplanetary magnetic field on various long time-scales

ABSTRACT The IDV index of geomagnetic activity is used by many researchers as a proxy of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength B. Using the original multiscale regression (MSR) method based on wavelet transformation, we obtained a long series of B values starting from 1845. Then, based on the new 2.0 versions of the sunspot number and group sunspot number and using MSR method and this series as a reference, we reconstructed IMF strength B starting from 1610. Further extension of the reconstruction is associated with radiocarbon reconstructions of solar activity at a time-scale of up to several millennia. It is shown that in the last 3200 yr the IMF strength has been experiencing a downward trend of −(0.39 ± 0.17) · 10−3 nT· yr−1.

Sunspot observations by Hisako Koyama: 1945–1996

ABSTRACT Sunspot records are the only observational tracer of solar activity that provides a fundamental, multicentury reference. Its homogeneity has been largely maintained with a succession of long-duration visual observers. In this article, we examine observations of one of the primary reference sunspot observers, Hisako Koyama. By consulting original archives of the National Museum of Nature and Science of Japan (hereafter, NMNS), we retrace the main steps of her solar-observing career, from 1945 to 1996. We also present the reconstruction of a full digital data base of her sunspot observations at the NMNS, with her original drawings and logbooks. Here, we extend the availability of her observational data from 1947–1984 to 1945–1996. Comparisons with the international sunspot number (Version 2) and with the group sunspot number series show a good global stability of Koyama's observations, with only temporary fluctuations over the main interval 1947–1982. Identifying drawings made by alternate observers throughout the series, we find that a single downward baseline shift in the record coincides with the partial contribution of replacement observers mostly after 1983. We determine the correction factor to bring the second part (1983–1996) to the same scale with Koyama's main interval (1947–1982). We find a downward jump by 9 per cent after 1983, which then remains stable until 1995. Overall, the high quality of Koyama's observations with her life-long dedication leaves a lasting legacy of this exceptional personal achievement. With this comprehensive recovery, we now make the totality of this legacy directly accessible and exploitable for future research.

How well do we know the sunspot number?

We show that only two adjustments are necessary to harmonize the Group Sunspot Number with the Zürich Sunspot Number. The latter has been increased from the 1940s on to the present by 20% due to weighting of sunspot counts according to size of the spots and can be corrected by increasing the earlier values as well. The Group Sunspot Number before ~1885 is too low by ~50%. With these adjustments a single sunspot number series results. Of note is that there is no longer a distinct Modern Grand Maximum.

Statistical Effects in the Solar Activity Cycles during AD 1823–1996

General statistical properties of solar activity cycles during the period AD 1823–1996—including the Gnevyshev-Ohl and Waldmeier effects as well as an amplitude-period effect—were analyzed using Wolf number, group sunspot number, and extended total sunspot area series. It was found out that the Gnevyshev-Ohl effect GO2 (the positive correlation between intensity of the even cycles 2N and intensity of the odd cycles 2N+1) and the Waldmeier effect W2 (the anticorrelation between rise times of sunspot cycles and their amplitudes) are the most universal and robust features of the solar cycle. Other statistical relations were found appreciably sensitive to the selection of solar index, the interval of analysis, and the way of the cycle feature determination.