Flood inundation and broader ecosystem service modelling in a data-sparse catchment; application of LUCI to Marokopa, NZ

<p>Event magnitude, societal vulnerability, and exposure define hazard impact. In New Zealand, flooding is the most common and damaging hazard at the decadal scale. Residents within the Marokopa catchment (west coast of the Waikato region) identify flood and erosion as significant local hazards. Flooding is influenced by a diverse range in factors, from environmental factors in the catchment, such as hydrology and climate, to socio-political policies and community awareness. Each of these factors is themselves influenced by climate change, and therefore requires study at the local and national scales. A mixed-methods approach was used to analyse flood and erosion through application of the Land Use and Capability Indicator (LUCI). Qualitative analysis along with rainfall-runoff, inundation, and holistic ecosystem service (ES) modelling are used to evaluate both flood and erosion extent, but also influencing factors. This research used a unique, mixed-methods approach to research a traditionally quantitative topic, improve on the understanding of karstic rainfall-runoff modelling and support LUCI development through application in a geomorphologically distinct location. Local knowledge facilitated both temporal and spatial outlining of flood and erosion extent at macro and catchment-scales. Bespoke rainfall-runoff modelling of the Marokopa upper catchment defined localised rainfall, seasonality and the karstic system as significant influences on runoff, with poor to excellent model-fit. Preliminary inundation findings outlined tidal, upper catchment bank-overflow, and overland flow as significant mechanisms of flooding. Finally, flood and erosion mitigation ecosystem services were modelled, with synergistic comparisons also analysed. Priority areas for future land management and hazard mitigation investment include the Marokopa floodplains ~5 km inland from the coast. Novel integration of physical and social observations outlines current flood risk extent and evaluates factors which contribute to flooding, providing a thorough knowledge base for future flood modelling within the Marokopa catchment.</p>

Flood inundation and broader ecosystem service modelling in a data-sparse catchment; application of LUCI to Marokopa, NZ

<p>Event magnitude, societal vulnerability, and exposure define hazard impact. In New Zealand, flooding is the most common and damaging hazard at the decadal scale. Residents within the Marokopa catchment (west coast of the Waikato region) identify flood and erosion as significant local hazards. Flooding is influenced by a diverse range in factors, from environmental factors in the catchment, such as hydrology and climate, to socio-political policies and community awareness. Each of these factors is themselves influenced by climate change, and therefore requires study at the local and national scales. A mixed-methods approach was used to analyse flood and erosion through application of the Land Use and Capability Indicator (LUCI). Qualitative analysis along with rainfall-runoff, inundation, and holistic ecosystem service (ES) modelling are used to evaluate both flood and erosion extent, but also influencing factors. This research used a unique, mixed-methods approach to research a traditionally quantitative topic, improve on the understanding of karstic rainfall-runoff modelling and support LUCI development through application in a geomorphologically distinct location. Local knowledge facilitated both temporal and spatial outlining of flood and erosion extent at macro and catchment-scales. Bespoke rainfall-runoff modelling of the Marokopa upper catchment defined localised rainfall, seasonality and the karstic system as significant influences on runoff, with poor to excellent model-fit. Preliminary inundation findings outlined tidal, upper catchment bank-overflow, and overland flow as significant mechanisms of flooding. Finally, flood and erosion mitigation ecosystem services were modelled, with synergistic comparisons also analysed. Priority areas for future land management and hazard mitigation investment include the Marokopa floodplains ~5 km inland from the coast. Novel integration of physical and social observations outlines current flood risk extent and evaluates factors which contribute to flooding, providing a thorough knowledge base for future flood modelling within the Marokopa catchment.</p>

Designing a stakeholder-inclusive service model for an eHealth service to support older adults in an active and social life

Background Service model design is slowly being recognized among eHealth developers as a valuable method for creating durable implementation strategies. Nonetheless, practical guidelines and case-studies that inform the community on how to design a service model for an eHealth innovation are lacking. This study describes the development of a service model for an eHealth service, titled ‘SALSA’, which intends to support older adults with a physically active and socially inclusive lifestyle. Methods The service model for the SALSA service was developed in eight consecutive rounds, using a mixed-methods approach. First, a stakeholder salience analysis was conducted to identify the most relevant stakeholders. In rounds 2–4, in-depth insights about implementation barriers, facilitators and workflow processes of these stakeholders were gathered. Rounds 5 and 6 were set up to optimize the service model and receive feedback from stakeholders. In rounds 7 and 8, we focused on future implementation and integrating the service model with the technical components of the eHealth service. Results While the initial goal was to create one digital platform for the eHealth service, the results of the service modelling showed how the needs of two important stakeholders, physiotherapists and sports trainers, were too different for integrating them in one platform. Therefore, the decision was made to create two platforms, one for preventive (senior sports activities) and one for curative (physical rehabilitation) purposes. Conclusions A service model shows the interplay between service model design, technical development and business modelling. The process of service modelling helps to align the interests of the different stakeholders to create support for future implementation of an eHealth service. This study provides clear documentation on how to conduct service model design processes which can enable future learning and kickstart new research. Our results show the potential that service model design has for service development and innovation in health care.

Coastal wetlands mitigate storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries

As storm-driven coastal flooding increases under climate change, wetlands such as saltmarshes are held as a nature-based solution. Yet evidence supporting wetlands’ storm protection role in estuaries - where both waves and upstream surge drive coastal flooding - remains scarce. Here we address this gap using numerical hydrodynamic models within eight contextually diverse estuaries, simulating storms of varying intensity and coupling flood predictions to damage valuation. Saltmarshes reduced flooding across all studied estuaries and particularly for the largest – 100-year – storms, for which they mitigated average flood extents by 35% and damages by 37% ($8.4M). Across all storm scenarios, wetlands delivered mean annual damage savings of $2.7M per estuary, exceeding annualised values of better-studied wetland services such as carbon storage. Spatial decomposition of processes revealed flood mitigation arose from both localised wave attenuation and estuary-scale surge attenuation, with the latter process dominating: mean flood reductions were 17% in the sheltered top third of estuaries, compared to 8% near wave-exposed estuary mouths. Saltmarshes therefore play a generalised role in mitigating storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries via multi-scale processes. Ecosystem service modelling must integrate processes operating across scales or risk grossly underestimating the value of nature-based solutions to the growing threat of storm-driven coastal flooding.

Coordination and Simplexity in Modelling Air Traffic Control as a Service: The Case of NAV Portugal

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This study analyses a unique, revelatory case of service modelling in a complex organisation providing air traffic control. The study analyses broad modelling activities, including information elicitation, analysis, and organisation, undertaken by a small team internal to the organisation that so far has spent about 2,400 person-hours of effort in the project. The study follows a qualitative approach in the interpretivist tradition based on interviews and document analysis. The study analyses the project framework, modelling notations, data collection, collaboration, modelling activities, and project outputs. The findings are interpreted in light of two theoretical lenses: coordination and simplexity. The study suggests that simplexity is beneficial for structuring the modelling of complex, knowledge-based services. A pattern was identified combining an initial step promoting simplicity and establishing communication with the stakeholders, followed by a second step acquiring complexity of understanding. Considering the mechanisms defined by coordination theory (flow, share, and fit), the study suggests a predominance of the fit mechanism in modelling knowledge-based services. The paper contributes to a better understanding of the challenges of modelling work through cognitive and knowledge-based lenses and identifies possible strategies to overcome these challenges. The paper also contributes to the emergent literature on simplexity by applying that particular lens to work modelling.

Coordination and Simplexity in Modelling Air Traffic Control as a Service: The Case of NAV Portugal

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This study analyses a unique, revelatory case of service modelling in a complex organisation providing air traffic control. The study analyses broad modelling activities, including information elicitation, analysis, and organisation, undertaken by a small team internal to the organisation that so far has spent about 2,400 person-hours of effort in the project. The study follows a qualitative approach in the interpretivist tradition based on interviews and document analysis. The study analyses the project framework, modelling notations, data collection, collaboration, modelling activities, and project outputs. The findings are interpreted in light of two theoretical lenses: coordination and simplexity. The study suggests that simplexity is beneficial for structuring the modelling of complex, knowledge-based services. A pattern was identified combining an initial step promoting simplicity and establishing communication with the stakeholders, followed by a second step acquiring complexity of understanding. Considering the mechanisms defined by coordination theory (flow, share, and fit), the study suggests a predominance of the fit mechanism in modelling knowledge-based services. The paper contributes to a better understanding of the challenges of modelling work through cognitive and knowledge-based lenses and identifies possible strategies to overcome these challenges. The paper also contributes to the emergent literature on simplexity by applying that particular lens to work modelling.