A beacon of dung: using lemming (Lemmus lemmus) winter nests and DNA analysis of faeces to further understand predator–prey dynamics in Northern Sweden

The hypothesis that predation is the cause of the regular small rodent population oscillations observed in boreal and Arctic regions has long been debated. Within this hypothesis, it is proposed that the most likely predators to cause these destabilizing effects are sedentary specialists, with small mustelids being possible candidates. One such case would be the highly specialized least weasel (Mustela nivalis) driving the Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus) cycle in Fennoscandia. These predators are often elusive and therefore distribution data can only be based on field signs, which is problematic when various mustelid species are sympatric, such as weasels and stoats (Mustela erminea). Here we present the results of using mustelid faeces in predated winter lemming nests to correctly identify the predator and thus discern which species exerts the strongest predation pressure on lemming winter populations. Samples were obtained during different phases in the lemming cycle, spanning 6 years, to account for different prey densities. Faecal mitochondrial DNA extraction and amplification of a 400-bp fragment was successful in 92/114 samples (81%); the sequencing of these samples proved that most predation occurrences (83%) could be attributed to the least weasel. These findings support the hypothesis that weasels in particular show high specificity in predation and could therefore be candidates to driving the lemming cycle in this area. We conclude that DNA analysis of faecal remains around predated nests can be a useful tool for further investigations concerning predator–prey interactions in the tundra.

Relating the 4-year lemming (Lemmus spp. and Dicrostonyx spp.) population cycle to a 3.8-year lunar cycle and ENSO

Reported peak years of lemming (Lemmus spp. and Dicrostonyx spp.) and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus (Linnaeus, 1758)) abundance were compiled from the literature for 12 locations spanning 127 years. The mean period of the 34 reported lemming and Arctic fox cycles from 1868 to 1994 was 3.8 years, suggesting that the period of the 4-year cycle is actually 3.8 years. Peak population years were predicted using a simple model based on a 3.8-year lunar cycle. For nearly 130 years, reported years of peak abundance of lemmings and Arctic foxes were significantly correlated with and have persistently stayed in phase with predicted peak years of abundance. Over the same period, predicted peak years of lemming abundance have been closely aligned with peak (i.e., La Niña) years of the January–March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). From 1952 to 1995, peak flowering in Norway tended to occur close to trough June–August SOI (El Niño) years. The hypothesis proposed is that the 3.8-year lunar cycle governs the timing of the lemming cycle, but it does not cause the population cycling itself. If this hypothesis is true, then the heretofore unexplained source of the persistent periodicity and quasi-metronomic regularity of the lemming cycle is identified.

EPIDEMICS AMONG SLEDGE DOGS IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND THEIR RELATION TO DISEASE IN THE ARCTIC FOX

An enquiry was made by the Hudson's Bay Company into the origin and spread of a serious disease resembling epidemic encephalitis of silver foxes which periodically destroys large numbers of sledge dogs in the arctic and subarctic regions of Canada. A similar disease occurs in the arctic fox, and is associated with an important four-year cycle in the numbers of the fox, which may thus form a permanent reservoir for the disease organism, or organisms. General forecasting of this fox cycle is possible, and is dependent on knowledge of the lemming cycle in the arctic, and associated climatic phenomena.