Building a predictive machine learning model of gentrification in Sydney

In an era of rapid urbanisation and increasing wealth, gentrification is an urban phenomenon impacting many cities around the world. The ability of policymakers and planners to better understand and address gentrification-induced displacement hinges upon proactive intervention strategies. It is in this context that we build a tree-based machine learning (ML) model to predict neighbourhood change in Sydney. Change, in this context, is proxied by the Socioeconomic Index for Advantage and Disadvantage, in addition to census and other ancillary predictors. Our models predict gentrification from 2011-2016 with a balanced accuracy of 74.7%. Additionally, the use of an additive explanation tool enables individual prediction explanations and advanced feature contribution analysis. Using the ML model, we predict future gentrification in Sydney up to 2021. The predictions confirm that gentrification is expanding outwards from the city centre. A spill-over effect is predicted to the south, west and north-west of former gentrifying hotspots. The findings are expected to provide policymakers with a tool to better forecast where likely areas of gentrification will occur. This future insight can then inform suitable policy interventions and responses in planning for more equitable cities outcomes, specifically for vulnerable communities impacted by gentrification and neighbourhood change.

Exposure, timing, and vulnerability: The role of public transport in inducing gentrification

Gentrification is an increasingly common phenomenon in many urban neighbourhoods. While cities invest in more sustainable travel options for their residents, there is limited literature on its connection to gentrification of the surrounding areas. Understanding whether these investments induce gentrification is essential to ensure the positive impacts of public transport are not undermined by the displacement it may create. This paper presents a multi-analysis approach to studying gentrification, defined by a bi-axial definition of neighbourhood change which considers the negative components (displacement) and positive components (neighbourhood upgrading) of gentrification. We focus specifically on the extent to which exposure to public transport induces gentrification-like changes in neighbouring communities, the influence of time on the kind and magnitude of changes, and whether disinvested communities are most vulnerable. We analyse neighbourhood changes in Manchester, UK, in response to the introduction of the Metrolink tram network, and conclude that there is evidence of gentrification in areas with access to new light rail. We conclude that the length of exposure has a significant impact on the magnitude and direction of change for certain indicators of gentrification. We find mixed results regarding the susceptibility of disinvested communities to gentrification.

From community institution to condo conversion: adaptive reuse within neighbourhood gentrification in cities in Ontario

What role do school and church condominium conversions play in processes of neighbourhood change? This paper examines 40 residential condominium conversions of former neighbourhood institutions in Ontario’s three largest urban municipalities to determine their role within local gentrification processes. The research analyzes indicator data over time in each conversion neighbourhood to identify gentrification trends and the points at which the conversions are proposed within or outside them. The research finds that post-institutional conversions can fall at any point before, during, after or outside neighbourhood gentrification. This paper concludes that such conversions do not play a universal driving or reactive role, however they have the power to foster further gentrification where they occur early in the process. Planners are thus encouraged to consider facilitating alternatives to private conversion in particular neighbourhood contexts. Further research is recommended on the intersection of heritage conservation, adaptive reuse and neighbourhood gentrification.

From community institution to condo conversion: adaptive reuse within neighbourhood gentrification in cities in Ontario

What role do school and church condominium conversions play in processes of neighbourhood change? This paper examines 40 residential condominium conversions of former neighbourhood institutions in Ontario’s three largest urban municipalities to determine their role within local gentrification processes. The research analyzes indicator data over time in each conversion neighbourhood to identify gentrification trends and the points at which the conversions are proposed within or outside them. The research finds that post-institutional conversions can fall at any point before, during, after or outside neighbourhood gentrification. This paper concludes that such conversions do not play a universal driving or reactive role, however they have the power to foster further gentrification where they occur early in the process. Planners are thus encouraged to consider facilitating alternatives to private conversion in particular neighbourhood contexts. Further research is recommended on the intersection of heritage conservation, adaptive reuse and neighbourhood gentrification.