Earthquakes Induced by Wastewater Disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta, 2018–2020

Although hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquakes have been widely reported in Alberta, Canada, only one seismic cluster (the Cordel Field) has thus far been linked to wastewater disposal (WD). In this study, we report a statistically significant spatiotemporal correlation between recent earthquakes and nearby WD wells near Musreau Lake—the second disposal-induced earthquake swarm in Alberta. This newly occurred swarm contains five events with local magnitudes ML>3 from January 2018 to March 2020, forming into three tightly spaced clusters. The refined locations and focal mechanisms suggest a ∼10 km long northwest–southeast-trending rupture along the northern Rocky Mountains that developed over time, during which both poroelastic effects and static stress transfer played key roles. Through a statistical analysis of all reported induced earthquake clusters in the western Canada sedimentary basin (WCSB), we propose a linear predictive relationship (i.e., the “Interpolated Strike Orientation” model) between fault rupture direction and fault distance to the Rocky Mountains. This observation-based model, which is supported by both the focal mechanisms of the natural earthquakes and the nearby northwest-striking geological faults, is a new and useful reference for future assessments of seismic hazard in the WCSB.

Major reorganization of the Snake River modulated by passage of the Yellowstone Hotspot

The details and mechanisms for Neogene river reorganization in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains have been debated for over a century with key implications for how tectonic and volcanic systems modulate topographic development. To evaluate paleo-drainage networks, we produced an expansive data set and provenance analysis of detrital zircon U-Pb ages from Miocene to Pleistocene fluvial strata along proposed proto-Snake and Columbia River pathways. Statistical comparisons of Miocene-Pliocene detrital zircon spectra do not support previously hypothesized drainage routes of the Snake River. We use detrital zircon unmixing models to test prior Snake River routes against a newly hypothesized route, in which the Snake River circumnavigated the northern Rocky Mountains and entered the Columbia Basin from the northeast prior to incision of Hells Canyon. Our proposed ancestral Snake River route best matches detrital zircon age spectra throughout the region. Furthermore, this northerly Snake River route satisfies and provides context for shifts in the sedimentology and fish faunal assemblages of the western Snake River Plain and Columbia Basin through Miocene−Pliocene time. We posit that eastward migration of the Yellowstone Hotspot and its effect on thermally induced buoyancy and topographic uplift, coupled with volcanic densification of the eastern Snake River Plain lithosphere, are the primary mechanisms for drainage reorganization and that the eastern and western Snake River Plain were isolated from one another until the early Pliocene. Following this basin integration, the substantial increase in drainage area to the western Snake River Plain likely overtopped a bedrock threshold that previously contained Lake Idaho, which led to incision of Hells Canyon and establishment of the modern Snake and Columbia River drainage network.

Late Pleistocene glacial chronologies and paleoclimate in the northern Rocky Mountains

The geologic record of mountain glaciations is a robust indicator of terrestrial paleoclimate change. During the last glaciation, mountain ranges across the western U.S. hosted glaciers while the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets flowed to the west and east of the continental divide, respectively. Records detailing the chronologies and paleoclimate significance of these ice advances have been developed for many sites across North America. However, relatively few glacial records have been developed for mountain glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains near ice sheet margins. Here, we report cosmogenic beryllium-10 surface exposure ages and numerical glacier modeling results showing that mountain glaciers in the northern Rockies abandoned terminal moraines after the end of the Last Glacial Maximum around 17–18 ka and could have been sustained by −10 to −8.5 °C temperature depressions relative to modern assuming similar or drier than modern precipitation. Additionally, we present a deglacial chronology from the northern Rocky Mountains that indicates while there is considerable variability in initial moraine abandonment ages across the Rocky Mountains, the pace of subsequent ice retreat through the Lateglacial exhibits some regional coherence. Our results provide insight on potential regional mechanisms driving the initiation of and sustained deglaciation in the western U.S. including rising atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet collapse.

Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains

Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. We used established dendrochronological methods to develop a long-term (1867–2019) regional avalanche chronology for the Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana using tree-rings from 647 trees exhibiting 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We then used principal component analysis and a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to examine avalanche-climate relationships. Historically, large magnitude regional avalanche years were characterized by stormy winters with positive snowpack anomalies, with avalanche years over recent decades increasingly influenced by warmer temperatures and a shallow snowpack. The amount of snowpack across the region, represented by the first principal component, is shown to be directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017. As continued climate warming drives further regional snowpack reductions in the study region our results suggest a decreased probability of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency associated with winters characterized by large snowpacks and a potential increase in large magnitude events driven by warming temperatures and spring precipitation.