Inferring health conditions from fMRI-graph data

ABSTRACTAutomated classification methods for disease diagnosis are currently in the limelight, especially for imaging data. Classification does not fully meet a clinician’s needs, however: in order to combine the results of multiple tests and decide on a course of treatment, a clinician needs the likelihood of a given health condition rather than binary classification yielded by such methods. We illustrate how likelihoods can be derived step by step from first principles and approximations, and how they can be assessed and selected, using fMRI data from a publicly available data set containing schizophrenic and healthy control subjects, as a working example. We start from the basic assumption of partial exchangeability, and then the notion of sufficient statistics and the “method of translation” (Edgeworth, 1898) combined with conjugate priors. This method can be used to construct a likelihood that can be used to compare different data-reduction algorithms. Despite the simplifications and possibly unrealistic assumptions used to illustrate the method, we obtain classification results comparable to previous, more realistic studies about schizophrenia, whilst yielding likelihoods that can naturally be combined with the results of other diagnostic tests.

Inferring health conditions from fMRI-graph data

Automated classification methods for disease diagnosis are currently in the limelight, especially for imaging data. Classification does not fully meet a clinician's needs, however: in order to combine the results of multiple tests and decide on a course of treatment, a clinician needs the likelihood of a given health condition rather than binary classification yielded by such methods. We illustrate how likelihoods can be derived step by step from first principles and approximations, and how they can be assessed and selected, using fMRI data from a publicly available data set containing schizophrenic and healthy control subjects, as a working example. We start from the basic assumption of partial exchangeability, and then the notion of sufficient statistics and the "method of translation" (Edgeworth, 1898) combined with conjugate priors. This method can be used to construct a likelihood that can be used to compare different data-reduction algorithms. Despite the simplifications and possibly unrealistic assumptions used to illustrate the method, we obtain classification results comparable to previous, more realistic studies about schizophrenia, whilst yielding likelihoods that can naturally be combined with the results of other diagnostic tests.

Symmetry Arguments in Probability

The history of the use of symmetry arguments in probability theory is traced. After a brief consideration of why these did not occur in ancient Greece, the use of symmetry in probability, starting in the 17th century, is considered. Some of the contributions of Bernoulli, Bayes, Laplace, W. E. Johnson, and Bruno de Finetti are described. One important thread here is the progressive move from using symmetry to identify a single, unique probability function to using it instead to narrow the possibilities to a family of candidate functions via the qualitative concept of exchangeability. A number of modern developments are then discussed: partial exchangeability, the sampling of species problem, and Jeffrey conditioning. Finally, the use or misuse of seemingly innocent symmetry assumptions is illustrated, using a number of apparent paradoxes that have been widely discussed.

Chaoticity for Multiclass Systems and Exchangeability Within Classes

Classical results for exchangeable systems of random variables are extended to multiclass systems satisfying a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of a finite multiclass system, given the value of the vector of the empirical measures of its classes, corresponds to independent uniform orderings of the samples within {each} class, and that a family of such systems converges in law {if and only if} the corresponding empirical measure vectors converge in law. As a corollary, convergence within {each} class to an infinite independent and identically distributed system implies asymptotic independence between {different} classes. A result implying the Hewitt-Savage 0-1 law is also extended.

Chaoticity for Multiclass Systems and Exchangeability Within Classes

Classical results for exchangeable systems of random variables are extended to multiclass systems satisfying a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of a finite multiclass system, given the value of the vector of the empirical measures of its classes, corresponds to independent uniform orderings of the samples within {each} class, and that a family of such systems converges in law {if and only if} the corresponding empirical measure vectors converge in law. As a corollary, convergence within {each} class to an infinite independent and identically distributed system implies asymptotic independence between {different} classes. A result implying the Hewitt-Savage 0-1 law is also extended.