MULTI-FACTOR MODELS FOR INVESTMENT PREMIUMS VALUATION: DISCOURSE ANALYSIS AND ITS PLACE IN THE PARADIGM OF INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO INVESTING

The paper dwells on multi-factor models of individual securities and investment portfolios expected returns and investment premiums valuation. Main stages of these models appearance and development are discovered. Theory and practice realized that single-index models were not relevant in terms of estimating expected returns, since at least several basic factors affected premiums substantially. Notwithstanding the basic principle of compensating risk beared by respective return remained unchanged two new models – intertemporal CAPM and international CAPM were underlying dynamic development of multi-factor models. The latter along with market risk factor considered other premium components like those resulting from exchange rate risks for different currencies. Components of scientific discourse in this field are identified, position of models under question in contemporary theory of international portfolio investing is defined. Multi-factor models expanded and enhanced portfolio paradigm of international investing, particularly its specific concept of expected returns valuation. Unlike some other paradigm components this concept is proved to be positive theoretically and well applicable in practice. Factors of international models of investment premiums valuation origin are specified. More precise emphasize is made on international multi-factor CAPM and APT models. More cross functional nature of arbitrage pricing model compared to CAPM is justified. Gnoseological status of Fama and French multi-factor model is specified. Its affiliation with both existing paradigms of international investing – value investing and portfolio paradigm is argued. This in turn determines its unique position in existing knowledge in the field. Technically and methodologically it was developed on the ground of traditional CAPM model – it implies existing risk factor, specific sensitivity ratio to the existing risk factor and respective investment premium. This justifies the model affiliation with traditional and dominating portfolio paradigm of international investing. On the other hand, in its current version the model completely corresponds with value paradigm principles. Intrinsic, internal value of securities is defined, the valuation is subjective, traditional fundamental analysis ratios like book-to-market value index are used. The model thus establishes particular connection between two paradigms of international portfolio investing.

Investor sentiment and the risk-return tradeoff

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the risk-return tradeoff allowing for the presence of noise traders, i.e., a subset of investors who either base their trading strategies on sentiment or hold unjustified optimistic/pessimistic views regarding market prospects. We measure noise traders’ sentiment relying on two sets of indices, namely the Baker and Wurgler sentiment index and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, in the US stock market. Under the assumption of the presence of noise traders’ sentiment, the risk-return tradeoff is tested through two sets of models: Merton’s Intertemporal CAPM and the GARCH-in-mean model. First, we find that the relationship between risk and return allowing for the presence of noise trader risk as measured by the Baker and Wurgler sentiment index is positive and statistically significant when tested through Merton’s Intertemporal CAPM. Second, the risk-return tradeoff tested through GARCH-in-mean models augmented by noise traders’ risk as measured through survey-based measures of sentiment establishes no clear evidence for a significant mean–variance relationship. Overall, we confirm Merton’s (1973) hypothesis that the more risk an investor bears, the greater his expected returns. This paper contributes to the asset pricing literature by trying to shed some light on the risk-return tradeoff from the standpoint of behavioral finance.

An Equilibrium Capital Asset Pricing Model in Markets with Price Jumps and Price Bubbles

This paper derives an equilibrium capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in a market where asset prices can exhibit price jumps and price bubbles. We derive a generalized intertemporal CAPM and consumption CAPM for these markets. The derived risk-return relation differs from the classical results only in the characterization of the state price density, which depends on the existence of price bubbles, and in the number and quantity of systematic risk factors with nonzero risk premia.

Short-Term Interest Rates and Stock Market Anomalies

We present a simple 2-factor model that helps explain several capital asset pricing model (CAPM) anomalies (value premium, return reversal, equity duration, asset growth, and inventory growth). The model is consistent with Merton’s intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) framework, and the key risk factor is the innovation on a short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate, or the T-bill rate. This model explains a large fraction of the dispersion in the average returns of the joint market anomalies. Moreover, the model compares favorably with alternative multifactor models widely used in the literature. Hence, short-term interest rates seem to be relevant for explaining several dimensions of cross-sectional equity risk premia.

Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models

Studies consistently find that inflation is an important augmented factor for intertemporal capital asset pricing models (ICAPMs) when pricing the Fama–French 25 size and book-to-market portfolios. We extend this line of research by investigating two alternative ICAPM models (from Michel; Hahn and Lee) and the three-factor model from Hou et al. We find significant evidence that both ICAPMs and Hou et al.’s three-factor model perform better when augmented with inflation than the original models. The augmented models achieve a good model fit with the fewest factors, thus avoiding or alleviating the over-fitting problem.