Price Bubbles in the Real Estate Markets - Analysis and Prediction

The article concerns the issue of price bubbles on the markets, with particular emphasis on the specificity of the real estate market. Up till now, more than a decade after the subprime crisis, there is no accurate enough method to predict price movements, their culmination and, eventually, the burst of price and speculative bubbles on the markets. Hence, the main goal of the article is to present the possibility of early detection of price bubbles and their consequences from the point of view of the surveyed managers. The following research hypothesis was verified: price bubbles on the real estate market cannot be excluded, therefore constant monitoring and predictive analytics of this market are needed. In addition to standard research methods (desk research or statistical analysis), the authors conducted their own survey on a group of randomly selected managers from Portugal and Poland in the context of their attitude to crises and price bubbles. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that managers in both analysed countries are different relating the effects of price bubbles to the activities of their own companies but are similar (about 40% of respondents) expecting quick detection and deactivation of emerging bubbles by the government or by central bank. Nearly 40% of Polish and Portuguese managers claimed that the consequences of crises must include an increased responsibility of managers for their decisions, especially those leading to failures.

USE OF QUANTITATIVE RATIOS FROM THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN PREDICTING PRICE BUBBLES ON THE HOUSING MARKET

One of the main causes of the economic and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – 2012 in some European countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland was the bursting of the residential market price bubble that was formed in the previous period. In this paper, a specific methodology of indicator analysis of the System of National Accounts and other data has been analyzed if it can help identify and prevent forming of some possible future price bubbles at the residential market, and therefore negative macroeconomic consequences of their bursting. Comparative indicator analysis and critical values suggest measurements of excessive construction activity that led to forming of price bubbles on the residential market. Econometric analysis has shown that it is not possible to establish critical values as variable of interest is not statistically significant.

DETERMINATION of FINANCIAL LITERACY LEVEL: A STUDY on HITIT UNIVERSITY FACULTY of ECONOMICS and ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES STUDENTS

Financial literacy is the level of financial knowledge, attitude and behavior that enables individuals to manage their income, expenses and assets in a way that does not cause financial problems both today and in the future. As individuals' financial literacy levels increase, unnecessary consumption and waste of resources will decrease and the efficiency of investments will increase. Increasing the level of financial literacy will ensure a more balanced formation of asset prices in financial markets and prevent the formation of price bubbles in the markets. Today, financial markets around the world are almost integrated, financial transactions have become possible quickly through portable electronic devices. In this environment, the difference in welfare between individuals and societies with financial literacy and individuals and societies without financial literacy has increased more than in any other period in history. This study, it is aimed to measure the financial literacy level of the students of Hitit University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences located in the province of Çorum. The data of the study were obtained from a questionnaire with the participation of 400 students studying in 5 different departments. By using the percentages of the correct answers given to the questions, success scores were created based on departments. With the help of the T-test and ANOVA tests, the relationship between students' financial literacy and whether they use department, gender, class, and credit card was determined. As a result of the study, it was determined that there are significant relationships between the departments and classes in which students study and their financial literacy, and no significant relationships were found between their credit card and internet banking usage and gender and financial literacy.

Bubble Identification in the Emerging Economy Fuel Price Series: Evidence from a Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test

In the recent past, the world in general and Pakistan in particular faced a drastic fuel price change, affecting the economic productivity of the country. This has drawn the attention of empirical researchers to analyze the abrupt change in fuel prices. This study takes a lead and investigates for the first time, in the literature related to Pakistan, the presence of multiple fuel price bubbles, with the purpose of knowing if the price driver is due to demand or it is exuberant consumer behavior that prevails and contributes to a sudden boom in fuel price series. The empirical analysis is performed through a recently proposed state-of-the-art generalized sup ADF (GSADF) approach on six commonly used fuel price series, namely, LDO (light diesel oil), HSD (high-speed diesel), petrol, natural gas, kerosene, and MS (motor spirit). The bubble analysis for each of the six fuel price series is based on monthly data from July 2005 to August 2020. The findings provide evidence of the existence of multiple bubbles in all series considered. Specifically, four bubbles are detected in each of the kerosene and natural gas price series, whereas three bubbles are noted in each of the HSD, LDO, petrol and MS price series. The maximum duration of occurrence of bubbles is of 12 months for kerosene. The date-stamping of the bubbles shows that the financial crisis of 2008 contributed to the emergence of bubbles that pushed oil prices upward and caused a depreciation in the national currency.

Banks and Economic Growth: A Basic Disequilibrium Model with Five Rationing Regimes

In this paper, an inductive research methodology and the principle of parsimony are applied to reconsider a central issue in economics and macro-finance, namely the determinants of economic growth and the role of the financial sector. A simple framework is derived, characterised by information imperfections and the absence of market clearing. The literature on rationing has identified the need to consider differing rationing regimes but has not included a banking sector. Such a set-up is presented in this paper, which identifies the link between credit and economic growth under differing rationing regimes, with varying consequences for inflation. The familiar case of money creation resulting in inflation features as a special case within the general framework. Others are the possibility of asset price bubbles and collapses, non-inflationary growth despite full employment, and instability in banking systems. The model is consistent with empirical evidence that has been difficult to reconcile with conventional equilibrium models. It is found that within this simple rationing framework, banks, left to their own devices, do not necessarily deliver stable, non-inflationary growth, and there is no reason to expect their behaviour to optimise social welfare. Some implications for research and policy are discussed.

THE INTER-TIER SPREAD OF HOUSING BUBBLES: ARE LUXURY MARKETS TO BLAME?

Understanding the spread of asset bubbles is pivotal to the effectiveness of risk management. This study thus estimates housing bubbles and investigates how and to what extent price bubbles spread between the tiers of luxury and mass housing in Hong Kong. The results show that price bubbles spread between housing tiers, the spreading of bubbles is not uni-directional from luxury to mass tiers, and more than 60% of bubbles come from inter-tier spreading. Moreover, bubble shocks from the luxury tier have stronger spreading influences on the movements of bubbles in the mass housing tier than the other way around during the period before the end of the global financial crisis (GFC), whereas the opposite is true for the period after GFC. The findings are important for policy makers attempting to tackle soaring housing bubbles, financial institutions seeking to managing lending risk, and housing investors wanting to time the submarkets.

Governing Financialization

Capitalism has become ‘financialized’. Since the 1970s, the swelling of financial markets and asset price bubbles has occurred alongside weaker underlying economic growth. Yet financialization was not a spontaneous market development—it was rather deeply political. States fuelled this process through policies of financial liberalization. Britain lies at the heart of this story. The British state’s radical financial liberalizations in the 1970s and 1980s were instrumental in creating a financialized global economic order in which the City of London emerged as a central hub. But why did the British state propel financialization? The conventional wisdom points to the lobbying power of financial elites and the strength of neoliberal ideology. However, this book offers an alternative explanation through an in-depth exploration of declassified state archives. By examining key financial liberalizations in the 1970s and 1980s—including the notorious ‘Big Bang’—this book argues that these policies were not part of an intentional scheme to create a new finance-led economic model. Instead, they were designed to address immediate governing dilemmas related to the grinding ‘stagflation’ crisis and its aftershocks. In this era, British governments found themselves trapped between global competitive pressures to enforce painful domestic adjustment and national political pressures to maintain existing living standards. Financial liberalization was pursued in a trial-and-error manner to navigate this dilemma. By unleashing financial markets, the state hoped to either postpone the worst effects of the crisis, or enact tough economic restructuring in an arm’s-length fashion. Financialization was an accidental outcome, not an intentional result.