Predictive validity of Stable-2007 in incarcerated samples

Some are unclear whether risk assessment instruments, specifically dynamic risk instruments, have demonstrated utility in the risk estimation, treatment recommendations, and monitoring change over time in men at risk for or under sentence of Indeterminate Detention (ID) for sexual offenses. We compare two datasets, the first consisting of individuals representing a routine sample of persons convicted of a sexual offense and the second of men representative of a high risk/needs sample. These two distinct samples (n = 442, mean Static-99R score = 2.4; n = 168, mean Static-99R score 4.5) were then also scored on the Stable-2007. For both groups this scoring occurred in an institutional setting. The Stable-2007 predicted sexual recidivism in Sample 1 independently and in conjunction with the Static-99R. In the high-risk sample the results were the same. In both samples a compound outcome variable (Sexual + Violent reoffense) was also calculated with the Stable-2007 predicting the compound outcome variable in Sample 1 but not Sample 2. This is interesting in that it suggests that the Stable-2007 assesses constructs specific to sexual re-offense in higher risk offenders and not general traits of violence or common anti-social behaviour. Limitations and directions for further research are discussed.

Use of the Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) within sexually violent persons evaluations

In many parts of the United States, individuals can be civilly committed as Sexually Violent Persons (SVP) to a secure treatment center based on their history of sexual offenses, current mental disorder, and current risk for sexual recidivism. While the specific criteria vary between jurisdictions, SVP civil commitment is indefinite, and periodic examinations occur to determine if ongoing commitment is necessary. Release recommendations may be made in part based on patients’ treatment progress. Therefore, incorporating treatment change into periodic risk assessments is an important role of the SVP evaluator. The current paper sought to explore the benefits of using an actuarial tool within SVP populations to measure decreased sexual recidivism risk as a result of treatment change. Specific discussion of the use of the Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offense version (Olver et al., 2007, https://doi.org/10.1037/1040-3590.19.3.318) is provided.

Protection of participants in a proposed treatment-based alternative to prison for men who have sexually assaulted an adult

<p>This thesis examines the proposed “treatment track” for men who have sexually assaulted an adult. The treatment track would offer community-based rehabilitation as an alternative to imprisonment when a perpetrator pleads guilty and is assessed as suitable for entry. It has the potential to increase reporting of sexual assaults of adults, decrease attrition in the processing of those complaints, provide a less distressing experience for complainants, and reduce reoffending. The treatment track has broad public support in principle, but work is required to develop the idea into a model and assess its feasibility. In this thesis, I consider whether the treatment track – as part of the criminal justice process – could offer sufficient protection for the liberties of its potential and actual participants. I use Roberts’ discussion of penal minimalism as a theoretical framework, which has not been applied to alternative ways of resolving offending before. I conclude that the treatment track could not yet fulfil the requirements of penal minimalism. Overall, the thesis advances the development of fair and effective alternative resolutions of serious offending. It does this by considering how one such alternative could be designed so that it respects fundamental liberties, developing sentencing theory to make it applicable to this new context, and by proposing an empirical research agenda guided by the requirements of penal minimalism. The thesis argues the following: The first condition of penal minimalism is that the state’s preventive duty should be exercised only where there is sufficiently serious harm to warrant intervention by the criminal justice process. In this context, it must be established that sexual recidivism is a serious enough problem to warrant intervention with legally-mandated, potentially intrusive treatment and risk management measures. Official conviction rates suggest no pressing need for more widely available treatment to reduce recidivism by men convicted of sexually assaulting an adult. I argue, however, that the self-report literature on undetected perpetration and the under-reporting and attrition figures in sexual cases indicate that repeat sexual violence perpetration (both by men whose offending currently results in a conviction and those whose offending has not been formally detected) is a serious problem requiring intervention, thus fulfilling the first condition of penal minimalism. The second condition of penal minimalism is that the proposed reform is likely to be effective in preventing the identified harm. I argue that the treatment track could reduce sexual recidivism if it achieved either of two things. First, it could bring into the criminal justice process perpetrators of sexual violence who are likely to reoffend without intervention and with whom there would not otherwise be any intervention to reduce their risk of reoffending. Secondly, the treatment track could reduce reoffending by men who would currently be convicted of a sexual offence and imprisoned, more effectively than current sentencing and correctional practice. I synthesise the various relevant bodies of empirical evidence to try to answer these questions, highlighting the wide gaps in knowledge that mean it cannot be concluded that the treatment track would be effective in reducing sexual reoffending. The third condition of penal minimalism is that the proposed reform should not infringe unduly on the liberties of the accused/offender. I focus on whether the treatment track could be designed to be equivalent in severity to the sentence of imprisonment that would otherwise be imposed. I develop the theory on the principle of proportionality to accommodate resolutions such as the treatment track which are restorative and/or treatment-based, and argue that it is possible for the treatment track and a sentence of imprisonment to be of equivalent severity. I then consider whether, despite equivalence in severity, the treatment track could coerce potential participants into pleading guilty and accepting psychological treatment, both interferences with their liberty.</p>

Protection of participants in a proposed treatment-based alternative to prison for men who have sexually assaulted an adult

<p>This thesis examines the proposed “treatment track” for men who have sexually assaulted an adult. The treatment track would offer community-based rehabilitation as an alternative to imprisonment when a perpetrator pleads guilty and is assessed as suitable for entry. It has the potential to increase reporting of sexual assaults of adults, decrease attrition in the processing of those complaints, provide a less distressing experience for complainants, and reduce reoffending. The treatment track has broad public support in principle, but work is required to develop the idea into a model and assess its feasibility. In this thesis, I consider whether the treatment track – as part of the criminal justice process – could offer sufficient protection for the liberties of its potential and actual participants. I use Roberts’ discussion of penal minimalism as a theoretical framework, which has not been applied to alternative ways of resolving offending before. I conclude that the treatment track could not yet fulfil the requirements of penal minimalism. Overall, the thesis advances the development of fair and effective alternative resolutions of serious offending. It does this by considering how one such alternative could be designed so that it respects fundamental liberties, developing sentencing theory to make it applicable to this new context, and by proposing an empirical research agenda guided by the requirements of penal minimalism. The thesis argues the following: The first condition of penal minimalism is that the state’s preventive duty should be exercised only where there is sufficiently serious harm to warrant intervention by the criminal justice process. In this context, it must be established that sexual recidivism is a serious enough problem to warrant intervention with legally-mandated, potentially intrusive treatment and risk management measures. Official conviction rates suggest no pressing need for more widely available treatment to reduce recidivism by men convicted of sexually assaulting an adult. I argue, however, that the self-report literature on undetected perpetration and the under-reporting and attrition figures in sexual cases indicate that repeat sexual violence perpetration (both by men whose offending currently results in a conviction and those whose offending has not been formally detected) is a serious problem requiring intervention, thus fulfilling the first condition of penal minimalism. The second condition of penal minimalism is that the proposed reform is likely to be effective in preventing the identified harm. I argue that the treatment track could reduce sexual recidivism if it achieved either of two things. First, it could bring into the criminal justice process perpetrators of sexual violence who are likely to reoffend without intervention and with whom there would not otherwise be any intervention to reduce their risk of reoffending. Secondly, the treatment track could reduce reoffending by men who would currently be convicted of a sexual offence and imprisoned, more effectively than current sentencing and correctional practice. I synthesise the various relevant bodies of empirical evidence to try to answer these questions, highlighting the wide gaps in knowledge that mean it cannot be concluded that the treatment track would be effective in reducing sexual reoffending. The third condition of penal minimalism is that the proposed reform should not infringe unduly on the liberties of the accused/offender. I focus on whether the treatment track could be designed to be equivalent in severity to the sentence of imprisonment that would otherwise be imposed. I develop the theory on the principle of proportionality to accommodate resolutions such as the treatment track which are restorative and/or treatment-based, and argue that it is possible for the treatment track and a sentence of imprisonment to be of equivalent severity. I then consider whether, despite equivalence in severity, the treatment track could coerce potential participants into pleading guilty and accepting psychological treatment, both interferences with their liberty.</p>

Exploring Risk for Sexual Recidivism and Treatment Responsivity Through the Lens of Early Trauma

Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are common in the histories of individuals who have sexually offended. Many risk factors for sexual recidivism resemble symptoms of early trauma, and early trauma may present a responsivity barrier to engagement in offense-focused treatment. Using the ACE scale, the current study aimed to (i) examine relationships between ACE scores and static and dynamic risk assessment scores, (ii) examine whether ACE scores differ between treatment completers versus noncompleters, and finally (iii) examine whether ACE scores predict treatment noncompletion. ACE scores were retrospectively coded from files of adult men receiving community-based assessment and/or treatment in New Zealand for sexual offenses against children ( N = 491; n = 185–411 for individual analyses). Although effect sizes were generally small, static risk and general self-regulation dynamic risk factors correlated positively with ACE scores, ACE scores were higher for treatment noncompleters versus completers, and higher dynamic risk assessment scores and ACE scores increased the odds of treatment noncompletion. Implications for future research and enhancing treatment responsivity are discussed.

Predicting Risk of Reoffending in Persons with Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offense Histories: The Use of Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool in a Scottish Population

In the past decade, there has been an increase in child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses and convictions. Although research shows that individuals with CSEM offence histories generally are at low risk of reoffending, certain factors do increase in CSEM convictions, in order to assist with case prioritization, management and supervision, risk assessment is helpful across agencies. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) was created specifically for this population and shows significant predictive validity for various outcomes. This study aimed to validate the use of the CPORT in a Scottish sample of 141 adult males who were convicted of CSEM offenses. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analyses indicated that the CPORT significantly predicted any recidivism (Area Under the Curve = .81), any sexual recidivism (AUC = .78) and CSEM recidivism (AUC = .74), suggesting that it is a valid risk assessment tool for Scottish populations. Recommendations for further research and clinical implications are discussed.

Mandated or Voluntary Treatment of Men Who Committed Child Sexual Abuse: Is There a Difference?

Child sexual abuse is associated with multiple and often severe consequences for people who are affected by it. From the perspective of indicative prevention, the treatment of people who have sexually abused children represents one important strategy, with the assumption that there is often a risk for sexual recidivism. However, there is still very limited knowledge about how men who have not been convicted of child sexual abuse but participate in voluntary treatment (here called non-forensic clients) differ from those who have been convicted and undergo mandated treatment (here called forensic clients). This study compared 22 forensic and 22 non-forensic clients regarding pedophilic interests, static and dynamic risk factors, responsivity features, and treatment progress during an individualized treatment based on the principles of risk, need, and responsivity. We found neither differences in the rates in the DSM-5 diagnosis of pedophilic disorder, nor in risk and responsivity associated scores at the beginning of treatment. In both groups, a low to moderate risk for sexual re-offending was estimated. Both groups improved their functioning on dynamic risk and responsivity factors under treatment, while age at the beginning of therapy also had a positive effect on all outcomes. Non-forensic clients had a higher amount of responsivity associated resources than forensic clients during treatment. The limitations of these results and their implications for further research and prevention approaches are discussed.

Balancing Political and Criminogenic Needs: Evaluating the New Zealand Department of Corrections’ Response to Men Assessed With a Below Average Risk for Sexual Recidivism

Current research provides little evidence for the effectiveness of treatment in reducing sexual offence recidivism amongst low-risk populations. However, in real-world correctional settings, program delivery rarely occurs in a vacuum, treatment may be politically mandated and unidimensional measures of program success may preclude recognition of broader benefits. The current study investigated the effectiveness of a low-intensity treatment program, both in terms of participants’ recidivism outcomes and in terms of broader organizational/systems impacts. The results demonstrated low base rate recidivism across both program participants ( n = 311) and a comparison group of men who were assessed as demonstrating similar static sexual offence recidivism risk ( n = 391), and little evidence of reduced recidivism following treatment. However, program administration led to many potential participants being identified as demonstrating higher levels of dynamic risk and overridden to more intensive treatment options ( n = 101). Given evidence that such options do effectively reduce recidivism in higher risk populations, these findings may suggest an overall positive net effect.

Static and Dynamic Recidivism Risk Factors of People Who Have Committed Child Sex Offenses in Sport

Current knowledge of people who commit child sex offenses (PCSO) in sport contexts is based on descriptive information from cross-sectional self-report studies of survivors and media coverage of court cases. In-depth scientific analyses of characteristics, interpersonal dynamics, and applied theories of sexual offending in sport are largely absent. This paper starts with a description of available Belgian data on PCSO in sport, coming from self-reports in community samples, reported cases in the media, and interviews with survivors. The main goal of this study is the analysis of treatment file information from 16 convicted PCSO in sport using two actuarial recidivism assessment instruments (STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007). Overall, the majority of the included PCSO's risk assessments indicated relatively low risk of sexual recidivism. Notable was the preponderance of high risk scores on items related to exclusively unrelated victims, male victims, sexual deviance, and the absence of an intimate relationship. Other static and dynamic factors related to the risk of sexual recidivism, e.g., (prior) non-sexual violent offenses, unknown victims, hostility toward women, lack of concern for others, and poor cooperation with supervisors were rated relatively low in this sample of PCSO in sport. The findings point toward the complex and nuanced patterns that underlie child sexual abuse in sport. The current findings bring us one step closer to filling in the puzzle of child sexual abuse in sport and will help inform evidence- and experience-based prevention and intervention efforts.