A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110197
Author(s):  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
James Rokop ◽  
Deirdre M. D’Orazio
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
State Hospitals ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
General Recidivism

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

scholarly journals Evaluating Selection for Sexually Violent Predator Commitment: A Comparison of Those Committed, Not Committed, and Nearly Committed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Perillo ◽  
Cynthia Calkins ◽  
Elizabeth Jeglic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Scores ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Empirically Supported ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Selection For

We examined state-wide data of persons evaluated for Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) commitment and compared risk-relevant data of three groups: those committed as SVPs ( n = 374), those not recommended for commitment ( n = 2,707), and those nearly committed (recommended for commitment but ultimately not committed; n = 117). Consistent with legal language for SVP commitment, binary and multinomial regression analyses revealed risk scores predicted SVP commitment recommendations in addition to some historical factors (e.g., psychiatric history, never being married, prior sex offenses). For those recommended for commitment, prior sexual offenses predicted ultimate commitment. Those nearly committed had significantly higher sexual recidivism rates than others who were not committed; however, these recidivism rates were still low (11.5%). Findings suggest evaluators’ SVP decisions incorporate risk data and follow empirically supported trends; however, the observed recidivism rates of a subset of those SVP commitment appears to target suggests SVP commitment’s potential for reducing sexual recidivism effectively and efficiently appears to have a low ceiling.

A Validation Study of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W. Eke ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
Michael C. Seto
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Development And Validation

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-219
Author(s):  
Leonel C. Gonçalves ◽  
Juliane Gerth ◽  
Astrid Rossegger ◽  
Thomas Noll ◽  
Jérôme Endrass
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Cut Score ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism Among Spanish Juveniles Involved in Serious Offenses

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Cuervo ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Miguel Basto-Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Juvenile Sample

This study analyzes the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Spanish juvenile sample. Participants’ age ranged between 14 and 18.09 years old ( N = 264) and 82% were boys and all had been sentenced to probation and custody centers. Data on juvenile and young adult recidivism were collected for the sample with mean follow-up periods of 13.74 and 20.19 months, respectively. The area under the curve, Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression survival analyses were each conducted to check for predictive validity. The findings demonstrated that the YLS/CMI is able to predict recidivism in both the juvenile period and the emerging adult period in a different cultural context. Prior Offenses and Education/Employment emerged as significant predictors for youth and young adult recidivism. The entire YLS/CMI is therefore an effective tool for risk classification in a different cultural sample.

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile

Assessment ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy E. McEwan ◽  
Daniel E. Shea ◽  
Michael Daffern ◽  
Rachel D. MacKenzie ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Duration Discrimination ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Better Than

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 887-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie G. Reeves ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
Melanie Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Risk Categories

The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.

Is the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) a feasible and valid predictor of short-term fall risk in nursing home residents with dementia?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn S. Sterke ◽  
Sawadi L. Huisman ◽  
Ed F. van Beeck ◽  
Caspar W. N. Looman ◽  
Tischa J. M. van der Cammen
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Nursing Home ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Dementia ◽  
Mobility Assessment ◽  
Specific Objective

ABSTRACTBackground:The feasibility and predictive validity of balance and gait measures in more severe stages of dementia have been understudied. We evaluated the clinimetric properties of the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) in nursing home residents with dementia with a specific objective of predicting falls in the short term.Methods:Seventy-five ambulatory nursing home residents with dementia, mean age 81 ± 8 years, participated in a prospective cohort study. All participants underwent the full POMA-test. Fall statistics were retrieved from incident reports during a three-months follow-up period. The predictive validity was expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Loglinear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between POMA scores and the occurrence of a fall.Results:The POMA showed several feasibility problems, with 41% of patients having problems in understanding one or more instructions. The inter-rater reliability of the instrument was good. The predictive validity was acceptable, with a sensitivity of 70–85% and a specificity of 51–61% for the POMA and its subtests, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 for POMA-Total (95% CI: 0.53–0.81), 0.67 for POMA-Balance (95% CI: 0.52–0.81), and 0.67 for POMA-Gait (95% CI: 0.53–0.81). After loglinear regression analysis, only POMA-T was significant in predicting a fall (adjusted HR = 1.08 per point lower; 95% CI 1.00–1.17).Conclusions:Application of the POMA in populations with moderate to severe dementia is hampered by feasibility problems. Its implementation in clinical practice cannot therefore be recommended, despite an acceptable predictive validity. To refine our findings, large prospective studies on the predictive validity of the POMA in populations with mild, moderate and severe dementia are needed. In addition, the performance of mobility assessment methods that are less dependent on cognition should be evaluated.

Comparing Predictive Validity of JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪ With Sexually Abusive Youth in Long-Term Residential Custody

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 2937-2953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucinda A. Lee Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Residential Treatment Facility ◽  
Sexually Abusive ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Representative Samples

This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study sample consisted of 129 male adjudicated adolescents housed in a secured residential treatment facility for sexually abusive youth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that MEGA♪ Risk Scale was mildly predictive of sexual recidivism over a 6-year period (mean follow-up = 15.6 months)—area under the curve (AUC) = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.52, 0.82]; p < .015. JSORRAT-II was not predictive (AUC = .57; 95% CI = [0.42, 0.72]; p < .297). The study contributes to scant literature on the most contemporary, statistically robust risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth.

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