Abstract
Nigerian stranded gas reserves is a vast natural gas resource opportunity (with estimates exceeding 84 trillion cubic feet or 44% of current proved reserves of 190.4 Tcf) is already being monetized especially as the global environment continues to favour low carbon footprint energy sources. Natural gas utilization projects such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Independent Power Projects (IPP), Gas-to-Liquid (GTL), from associated gas (AG) have taken off, however, Nigeria still struggles with low pace of stranded gas development as a result of huge capital expenditure outlays, uncertain fiscal terms as well as inadequate infrastructure, hence, stranded gas remains minimally tapped. Not only that, they exist in pockets of fields unevenly dispersed across Nigerian fields. About 70% of the onshore stranded gas are found in fields with less than 500 billion cubic feet (bcf) reserves, severely limiting gathering system optimization opportunities.
In this work, GTL option is investigated as a viable utilization option. A modular medium scale GTL plant with a capacity to produce 25,000 barrels per day of premium products, is considered. GTL economics is analyzed with and without Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) extraction. The various internal and external risks associated with its development, are also explored. Without NGL extraction accruing to the GTL owner, the project becomes unattractive and never pays out within the projected timeframe of operation. With NGL extraction, project payout is 10 years, NPV@10% is $1,132.6 million and IRR is 15.4%. From the risk assessment, the capital expenditure (CAPEX) and product prices (NGL price being the most important) are major factors affecting project economic risks.
Because of the huge impact of NGL extraction on GTL economics, consideration will have to be given to alternative incentives to improve profitability where this extraction opportunity is low or non-existent by fiscal authorities.