A new conceptual model of pesticide transfers from agricultural land to surface waters with a specific focus on metaldehyde

Pesticide losses from agricultural land to water can result in the environmental deterioration of receiving systems.

Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999) for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO-model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999) for an important agricultural production area in south-west Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios could provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses and assessments of changes in pesticide leaching risks.

Pesticide retention in an experimental wetland treating non-point source pollution from agriculture runoff

Pesticide losses to the environment are unwanted due to possible environmental and health hazards. An experimental wetland is established to study the efficiency with respect to retention of sediments, nutrients and pesticides. Pesticides were applied on an arable soil plot in the watershed. Statistical analyses were carried out on three selected pesticides: propachlor, metalaxyl and chlorfenvinfoss. All pesticides were found in the experimental wetland, with peak concenttrations shortly after spraying. In 2003 pesticide retention varied from 11% to 42% and in 2004 retention varied from 19% to 56%. Comparing eight different wetland filters, we found that L6 and L8, with flagstones and straw, respectively, had a higher total pesticide retention than a standard Norwegian wetland (L4). When the compounds were treated separately, however, the picture was different. Statistical analyses showed that the treatments were signficantly different from zero in six of the wetlands for remowal of propachlor, for removal of metalaxyl none were significantly different, and for removal of chlorfenvinphos four treatments were significantly different. For the three compounds none of the relative treatments were significantly different from L4. Chemical properties of the pesticides could explain some of the behaviour in the watershed and in the wetland.