STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT IN PERM

The article proposes an approach to forecasting mean temperature and total precipitation for the upcoming month, based on the study of the regularities of the influence of statistical characteristics of temperature and precipitation of previous periods on them. Among the predictors, along with the basic statistical characteristics, we use the fractality index which is an indicator of the randomness/ determinism of the climate series. Within the framework of this approach, we have developed models of different levels to predict the temperature and total precipitation amount in the upcoming month. The main parameters of these models are described and the possibilities of their variation are indicated. Examples are given to illustrate the forecasting methodology using various types of models and include the results of quality control of the models, calculation of forecast accuracy and dependence of forecast accuracy of average temperature and precipitation on the month (climate season). When tested in 2020, models for forecasting temperature and precipitation for the upcoming month give good results: 9 correct forecasts of temperature anomalies out of 10 (90%) and 7 correct forecasts of precipitation anomalies out of 9 (77,7%).

Fractal analysis of colony margins as an aid for screening freshwater yeast cultures for bioclarification of turbid polluted water resources

In Iron ore mining areas of Goa, water resources are polluted due to high turbidity and mineral colloids. For bioclarification of the turbidity, we need to identify some promising property of strains by which the strains of freshwater yeasts can be screened. This work presents a screening of freshwater yeast cultures, based on the complexity of colony margins. We performed screening of the wild aquatic yeasts isolated from different fresh water bodies of Goa on 2nd, 4th and 6th day of incubation respectively. Colony margins of sixteen different strains were studied for their fractality indexes and on comparison significant differences were observed among them. We report comparative analysis of five representative strains in this paper. Particularly strain Bchlm-1-2 showed high fractality index approximately 1410 on 6th day of incubation. This work provides quantitative scoring system of the morphological behavior of large number of strains. Our approach has the potential to improve the accuracy and speed to quantify and compare large number of isolates on the basis of their colony margins.

Applying the Fractal Analysis Methods for the Study of the Mechanisms of Deformation and Destruction of Polymeric Material Samples Affected by Tensile Stresses

The paper proposes an approach to study the mechanism of deformation of epoxy polymers based on the methods of fractal calculations. The advantages of the method for determining the fractality index of the deformation curves of polymer samples using the minimum coverage method are shown. An algorithm for the quantitative determination of the location of the "critical" points of the deformation curves of polymer samples under tension is proposed. It is shown that the use of the developed methodology for the fractal analysis of time series on the basis of a set of points of deformation curves of epoxy polymer samples under tension, provides valuable information about the processes occurring in the structure of composite materials affected by mechanical loads and various aggressive factors.