An interstellar origin for high-inclination Centaurs

ABSTRACT We investigate the possible origins of real high-inclination Centaurs and trans-neptunian objects using a high-resolution statistical search for stable orbits that simulates their evolution back in time to the epoch when planet formation ended 4.5 billion years in the past. The simulation is a precise orbit determination method that does not involve ad hoc initial conditions or assumptions such as those found in planetesimal disc relaxation models upon which their conclusions depend. It can therefore be used to independently test origin theories based on relaxation models by examining the past orbits of specific real objects. Here, we examined 17 multiple-opposition high-inclination Centaurs and the two polar trans-neptunian objects 2008 KV42 and (471325) 2011 KT19. The statistical distributions show that their orbits were nearly polar 4.5 Gyr in the past, and were located in the scattered disc and inner Oort cloud regions. Early polar inclinations cannot be accounted for by current Solar system formation theory as the early planetesimal system must have been nearly flat in order to explain the low-inclination asteroid and Kuiper belts. Furthermore, the early scattered disc and inner Oort cloud regions are believed to have been devoid of Solar system material as the planetesimal disc could not have extended far beyond Neptune’s current orbit in order to halt the planet’s outward migration. The nearly polar orbits of high-inclination Centaurs 4.5 Gyr in the past therefore indicate their probable early capture from the interstellar medium.

Spectral and orbital characterisation of the directly imaged giant planet HIP 65426 b

HIP 65426 b is a recently discovered exoplanet imaged during the course of the SPHERE-SHINE survey. Here we present new L′ and M′ observations of the planet from the NACO instrument at the VLT from the NACO-ISPY survey, as well as a new Y –H spectrum and K-band photometry from SPHERE-SHINE. Using these data, we confirm the nature of the companion as a warm, dusty planet with a mid-L spectral type. From comparison of its SED with the BT-Settl atmospheric models, we derive a best-fit effective temperature of Teff = 1618 ± 7 K, surface gravity log g = 3.78−0.03+0.04 and radius R = 1.17 ± 0.04RJ (statistical uncertainties only). Using the DUSTY and COND isochrones we estimate a mass of 8 ± 1MJ. Combining the astrometric measurements from our new datasets and from the literature, we show the first indications of orbital motion of the companion (2.6σ significance)and derive preliminary orbital constraints. We find a highly inclined orbit (i = 1.07−10+13 deg) with an orbital period of 800−400+1200 yr. We also report SPHERE sparse aperture masking observations that investigate the possibility that HIP 65426 b was scattered onto its current orbit by an additional companion at a smaller orbital separation. From this data we rule out the presence of brown dwarf companions with masses greater than 16 MJ at separations larger than 3 AU, significantly narrowing the parameter space for such a companion.

Prediction Rules for Regime Changes and Length in a New Regime for the Lorenz Model

Despite the widespread use of the Lorenz model as a conceptual model for predictability studies in meteorology, only Evans et al. seem to have studied the prediction of occurrence of regime changes and their duration. In this paper, simpler rules are presented for forecasting regime changes and their lengths, with near-perfect forecasting accuracy. It is found that when |x(t)| is greater than a critical value xc, the current regime will end after it completes the current orbit. Moreover, the length n of the new regime increases monotonically with the maximum value xm of |x(t)| in the previous regime. A best-fit cubic expression provides a very good estimate of n for the next regime, given xm for the previous regime. Similar forecasting rules are also obtained for regime changes in the forced Lorenz model. This model was introduced by Palmer and used as a conceptual model to explore the effects of sea surface temperature on seasonal mean rainfall. It was found that for the forced Lorenz model, the critical value xc changed linearly with the forcing parameter providing bias to one of the regimes. Similar regime prediction rules have been found in some other two-regime attractors. It seems these forecasting rules are a generic property of a large class of two-regime attractors. Although as a conceptual model, the Lorenz model cannot be taken very literally, these results suggest a relationship between magnitudes of maximum anomaly in one regime, for example, the active spell, and duration of the subsequent break spell.

The Galaxy's Eating Habits

The possibility of a gaseous halo stream which was stripped from the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy is presented. The total mass of the neutral hydrogen along the orbit of the Sgr dwarf in the direction of the Galactic Anti-Center is 4 − 10 × 106 M⊙ (at 36 kpc, the distance to the stellar debris in this region). Both the stellar and gaseous components have negative velocities in this part of the sky, but the gaseous component extends to higher negative velocities. We suggest this gaseous stream was stripped from the main body of the dwarf 0.2 – 0.3 Gyr ago during its current orbit after a passage through a diffuse edge of the Galactic disk with a density > 10−4 cm−3. The gas would then represent the dwarf's last source of star formation fuel and explains how the galaxy was forming stars 0.5-2 Gyr ago.

On the Accuracy of CCD and Photographic Observations of Asteroids and Their Current Orbit Determinations

An application of the Classical Laplacian Method and new Pulkovo AMP-method for current asteroid orbit determinations is given. The CERES software package created at the Institute of Theoretical Astronomy (Russia) was applied to calculate (O-C)-differences for 200 numbered minor planets observed irregularly and quasisimultaneously in 1993 by CCD as well as by photographic techniques at 25 observatories (ESO, SERGA, Kitt Peak etc.). The accuracy of the observations was estimated by means of the standard error of the average (O-C) differences for each type of observation obtained by each telescope. As a whole the CCD-observations of the numbered minor planets are considerably more precise in comparison to the photographic ones. Some results are given in Table 1.