Meta-Learning PAC-Bayes Priors in Model Averaging

Nowadays model uncertainty has become one of the most important problems in both academia and industry. In this paper, we mainly consider the scenario in which we have a common model set used for model averaging instead of selecting a single final model via a model selection procedure to account for this model's uncertainty in order to improve reliability and accuracy of inferences. Here one main challenge is to learn the prior over the model set. To tackle this problem, we propose two data-based algorithms to get proper priors for model averaging. One is for meta-learner, the analysts should use historical similar tasks to extract the information about the prior. The other one is for base-learner, a subsampling method is used to deal with the data step by step. Theoretically, an upper bound of risk for our algorithm is presented to guarantee the performance of the worst situation. In practice, both methods perform well in simulations and real data studies, especially with poor quality data.

Coherent Predictive Inference under Exchangeability with Imprecise Probabilities

Coherent reasoning under uncertainty can be represented in a very general manner by coherent sets of desirable gambles. In a context that does not allow for indecision, this leads to an approach that is mathematically equivalent to working with coherent conditional probabilities. If we do allow for indecision, this leads to a more general foundation for coherent (imprecise-)probabilistic inference. In this framework, and for a given finite category set, coherent predictive inference under exchangeability can be represented using Bernstein coherent cones of multivariate polynomials on the simplex generated by this category set. This is a powerful generalisation of de Finetti's Representation Theorem allowing for both imprecision and indecision. We define an inference system as a map that associates a Bernstein coherent cone of polynomials with every finite category set. Many inference principles encountered in the literature can then be interpreted, and represented mathematically, as restrictions on such maps. We discuss, as particular examples, two important inference principles: representation insensitivity—a strengthened version of Walley's representation invariance—and specificity. We show that there is an infinity of inference systems that satisfy these two principles, amongst which we discuss in particular the skeptically cautious inference system, the inference systems corresponding to (a modified version of) Walley and Bernard's Imprecise Dirichlet Multinomial Models (IDMM), the skeptical IDMM inference systems, and the Haldane inference system. We also prove that the latter produces the same posterior inferences as would be obtained using Haldane's improper prior, implying that there is an infinity of proper priors that produce the same coherent posterior inferences as Haldane's improper one. Finally, we impose an additional inference principle that allows us to characterise uniquely the immediate predictions for the IDMM inference systems.