Turning Point

The breakup of Yugoslavia is a turning point in international relations with consequences far beyond the region. The US intervention in the former Yugoslavia reestablishes American leadership in Europe. It revitalizes and reforms NATO and the EU and creates new relationships with the UN. The international effort in the former Yugoslavia creates seven new nations oriented toward Western values. Importantly, the US engagement creates an opportunity to replace ethnic conflict with democracy in the Balkans. While the US should remain engaged, success depends on the commitment of local leaders to change.

On the Banks of an Ancient Lake

The talks resolve most issues after the talks move to the shore of Lake Ohrid. But the execution of NLA fighters and the ambush of a Macedonian Army convoy threaten to destroy the negotiations. President Trajkovski steps in to complete the agreement and prevent a destructive civil war. NATO then moves to disarm the NLA.

Madeleine’s War

Serbian security forces expel half the Albanian population from Kosovo during the NATO air campaign. Russia remains in the Contact Group, but the cooperative relationship on the Balkans between Moscow and the West becomes seriously strained. As NATO bombs fall on Serbian forces in Kosovo and Serbia, Pardew becomes a special diplomatic channel between Washington and the Milosevic regime in Belgrade. Serbian security forces withdraw from Kosovo.

Getting Started

Pardew takes the new T&E team to Sarajevo and Belgrade to introduce them to the situation and the difficulty of melding two Federation armies into one. European and other opposition to the T&E Program begins to take shape. Milosevic recognizes his personal relationship with Pardew, but opposes the T&E Program. The Bosniaks solicit Richard Perle and other American “neocons” to oversee the T&E Program.

Lifting the Siege

The next shuttle lifts the siege of Sarajevo and ends most fighting in Bosnia. Milosevic maneuvers Holbrooke into meeting with indicted war criminals, but the result is a commitment to stop shelling Sarajevo in exchange for ending the NATO airstrikes. The Bosniaks, encouraged by the airstrikes and the success of the Croatian offensive in Bosnia, are outraged at Holbrooke for the Serbian commitment. The US demands that Croatian leaders stop their offensive in western Bosnia.

Death on a Balkan Mountain

An accident killing three members of the first Holbrooke negotiating team propels James Pardew into the center of the US negotiations on Bosnia as the representative of the Secretary of Defense. The new negotiating team prepares to resume negotiations after meeting with President Clinton at the memorial service for the three Americans at Arlington Cemetery. The availability of a dedicated aircraft allows Holbrooke to move fast throughout the Balkans and Europe to help maintain control of the negotiations.

Leo-Pard

Pardew and Leotard agree on an aggressive diplomatic strategy to promote peace. The Macedonians allow Pardew and Leotard to talk only to recognized Albanian political leaders. NATO is left to exclusively engage the NLA. The international envoys look for leverage to influence the negotiating parties.

A War or a Nation?

Touch-and-go diplomacy by senior European officials fails to halt the momentum toward a civil war in Macedonia after Albanian insurgents use force to demand increased rights and power for their people. With limited capacity to deal with an insurgency, the Macedonians can have a war or a unified nation, not both. President Bush and Secretary of State Powell designate Pardew as the US envoy to work with EU envoy Francois Leotard of France to assist President Trajkovski in finding a peaceful solution to the looming war in Macedonia.

Wrestling an Alligator

The T&E Program moves forward despite constant international interference and difficult relations between the Muslims and the Croats. The EU embargo on Bosnia prevents East European countries from selling equipment to the Federation. However, the Dutch agree to the sale of nonlethal trucks. The Secretaries of State and Defense demand the removal of the Bosnian Muslim Deputy Minister of Defense Cengic from his position. In a compromise, both the Muslim and Croat ministers in Bosnia are fired, clearing the way for the unloading of American military equipment destined for delivery to the Federation. Gradually, T&E makes progress, but serious problems remain between the Federation partners.

Hard Choices

Federation authorities in Bosnia drag their feet on two conditions to start the T&E Program. The Muslim government in Sarajevo stalls in the removal of extremist influence and foreign fighters from Bosnia, and the Muslims and Croats do not agree on a defense law combining their separate forces into a single ministry of defense. After intense, high-level US pressure, the parties meet the conditions. President Clinton certifies to Congress that the Bosniaks have removed extremists, and the Federation Parliament passes the defense law.