The EU after Brexit

This chapter focuses on the European Union after Brexit and articulates the case for constitutional reforms. Reforms are necessary to address the substantive and institutional shortcomings that patently emerged in the context of Europe’s old and new crises. Moreover, reforms will be compelled by the exigencies of the post-Covid-19 EU recovery, which pushes the EU towards new horizons in terms of fiscal federalism and democratic governance. As a result, the chapter considers both obstacles and opportunities to reform the EU and make it more effective and legitimate. On the one hand, it underlines the difficulties connected to the EU treaty amendment procedure, owing to the requirement of unanimous approval of any treaty change, and the consequential problem of the veto. On the other hand, it emphasizes the increasing practice by Member States to use intergovernmental agreements outside the EU legal order and stresses that these have set new rules on their entry into force which overcome state veto, suggesting that this is now a precedent to consider.

The EU during Brexit

This chapter analyses the European Union during Brexit, explaining how the EU institutions and Member States reacted to the UK’s decision to leave the EU. It outlines how they went about this in the course of the withdrawal negotiations. The EU institutions and Member States managed to adopt a very united stance vis-à-vis a withdrawing state, establishing effective institutional mechanisms and succeeding in imposing their strategic preferences in the negotiations with the UK. Nevertheless, the EU was also absorbed during Brexit by internal preparations to face both the scenario of a ‘hard Brexit’—the UK leaving the EU with no deal—and of a ‘no Brexit’—with the UK subsequently delaying exit and extending its EU membership. Finally, during Brexit the EU increasingly started working as a union of 27 Member States—the EU27—which in this format opened a debate on the future of Europe and developed new policy initiatives, especially in the field of defence and military cooperation.

The EU besides Brexit

This chapter assesses the European Union besides Brexit, shedding light on the multiple other crises that the EU has recently faced in addition to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom. In the last decade, the EU has weathered the euro-crisis, the migration crisis, and the rule of law crisis, each of which has continued to sour throughout the Brexit negotiations. In addition to these old crises, the EU has now faced new ones—as shown by the difficulties of dealing with the issue of enlargement, the problem of climate change, and particularly the catastrophic Covid-19 pandemic. All of these crises have exposed the disunity of the EU—a counter-point to the unity that emerged in the Brexit negotiations. The chapter explains the difficulties of the EU27 in successfully tackling once and for all any of these crises, and the growing centripetal pulls at play, owing to the rise of very different visions of European integration—what can be called a ‘polity’, a ‘market’, and an ‘autocracy’ conception of the EU, which are competing with each other.

The EU beyond Brexit

This chapter looks at the future of the European Union beyond Brexit and analyses the plan, precedents, and prospects for the Conference on the Future of Europe. The establishment of the Conference on the Future of Europe is potentially an innovative model and path-breaking initiative to reform the EU and make it more effective and legitimate, along the lines of prior, out-of-the-box initiatives such as the Conference of Messina and the Convention on the Future of Europe. The Covid-19 pandemic has delayed the start of the Conference on the Future of Europe, but has also increased its urgency. Yet, the chances of success of this initiative are closely connected to the mechanics of treaty reform. As such, the chapter suggests that the Conference should consider channelling its output into a Political Compact, subject to an entry into force rule that do away with the unanimity requirement, as it has been done previously in the field of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Clearly, success cannot be taken for granted and there are many difficulties ahead, but the EU is facing a decisive moment.

Conclusion

This concluding chapter explores the connections between Brexit and EU reforms. The case for reforming the EU is not new. In recent years, multiple national and supranational leaders have put forward proposals to overhaul the EU and make it fit for the new challenges it faces. Moreover, think tanks, public intellectuals, and academic scholars have increasingly been reflecting on the future of Europe and suggesting plans ahead. This book joins this lively debate, but seeks to go beyond it by contributing with ideas on how to move the EU forward, post-Covid-19. In particular, as the launch of the Conference on the Future of Europe approaches, this book not only supports this effort, claiming that this is an indispensable step following the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. It also provides insights for policy-makers involved in the process, especially suggesting that a Political Compact for a more democratic and effective union can represent the avenue to relaunch the project of integration and renew Europe’s future.

Introduction

This introductory chapter provides an overview of how the European Union has been affected by the United Kingdom’s decision to leave, and what this means for the future of European integration. The departure of a large, rich, and influential Member State must prompt a rethink of the EU constitutional settlement. Immediately after the Brexit referendum, the EU and its Member States started a debate on the future of Europe—and this process is now moving from rhetoric to reality with the institution of the Conference on the Future of Europe. The Conference on the Future of Europe can serve as an innovative means to reform the EU, tackling the transitional issues left by the UK’s withdrawal and addressing the more structural, substantive, and institutional weaknesses dramatically exposed by the plurality of other crises the EU has recently weathered. In fact, the Conference on the Future of Europe is made all the more urgent by Covid-19, and the exigencies of the EU post-pandemic recovery plan, which will entail important adjustments to the EU structure of powers and responsibilities. Ultimately, this book utilizes Brexit as a prism to shed light on the necessity and urgency of constitutional reforms in the EU.

The EU because of Brexit

This chapter examines the European Union because of Brexit, focusing on a number of transitional problems that the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU—and its delay owing to subsequent requests to extend EU membership for extra time—posed for the EU’s functioning and funding. In particular, it emphasizes the consequences of Brexit for the composition of the 9th European Parliament (2019–2024), and its elections in May of 2019. It explains how the participation of the UK in this democratic process had pro tempore effects on both the EP outlook and its electoral outcome. The chapter also considers the transitional institutional challenges faced because of Brexit by both the European Commission and the Council of the EU. It highlights the implications of Brexit for the EU’s multi-annual financial framework (MFF), stressing how the UK’s withdrawal created a budget gap for the EU, attributable to the way the EU is funded, and how this would create challenges in the next MFF negotiations—as indeed happened.