On the seasonal and sub‐seasonal factors influencing East China tropical cyclone landfall

Abstract A method has been developed to forecast seasonal landfall risk using ensembles of cyclone tracks generated by ECMWF’s seasonal forecast system 4. The method has been applied to analyze and retrospectively forecast the landfall risk along the North American coast. The main result is that the method can be used to forecast landfall for some parts of the coast, but the skill is lower than for basinwide forecasts of activity. The rank correlations between forecasts issued on 1 May and observations are 0.6 for basinwide tropical cyclone number and 0.5 for landfall anywhere along the coast. When the forecast period is limited to the peak of the hurricane season, the landfall correlation increases to 0.6. Moreover, when the forecast issue date is pushed forward to 1 August, basinwide tropical cyclone and hurricane correlations increase to 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, whereas landfall correlations improve less. The quality of the forecasts is in line with that obtained by others.

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The Relative Importance of Factors Influencing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2018gl079997 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (4) ◽

pp. 2282-2292 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Saiprasanth Bhalachandran ◽

Ziad S. Haddad ◽

Svetla M. Hristova‐Veleva ◽

F. D. Marks Jr.

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Relative Importance ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Intensity Changes

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Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall over Mozambique

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3932:sfotcl>2.0.co;2 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 16 (23) ◽

pp. 3932-3945 ◽

Cited By ~ 58

Author(s):

Frédéric Vitart ◽

David Anderson ◽

Tim Stockdale

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Seasonal Forecasting ◽

Tropical Cyclone Landfall

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Structure of an Atypical Midsummer Tropical Cyclone in the East China Sea and the Environmental Effects on It.

Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics ◽

10.2467/mripapers.53.59 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 53 (2) ◽

pp. 59-73

Author(s):

Naoko Kitabatake

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

East China Sea ◽

Environmental Effects ◽

East China ◽

The East China Sea ◽

China Sea

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Increasing Historical Tropical Cyclone-Induced Extreme Wave Heights in the Northern East China Sea during 1979 to 2018

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12152464 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (15) ◽

pp. 2464

Author(s):

Shuiqing Li ◽

Haoyu Jiang ◽

Yijun Hou ◽

Ning Wang ◽

Jiuyou Lu

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

East China Sea ◽

Wave Height ◽

Wind Waves ◽

Rate Of Change ◽

East China ◽

Extreme Wave ◽

Study Region ◽

China Sea ◽

Wave Heights

Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced wind waves are a major concern in coastal safety, therefore quantifying the long-term change in extreme TC waves is critical for the design of coastal infrastructures and for understanding variations in coastal morphology. In this study, a trend analysis is performed on the TC-induced extreme wave heights in the northern East China Sea using numerically simulated wave height data during the period of 1979 to 2018. The simulation was forced with historical TC winds constructed using a parametric TC wind model with satellite-observed TC best-track data as the input. The results show consistently increasing extreme wave heights throughout the study region, which are induced predominantly by the increasing TC intensity. The increase rates (0.01–0.08 m yr−1) are relatively large (small) in offshore (nearshore) waters and at relatively high (low) latitudes. The spatial variability of the wave height trend is highly sensitive to the type of TC track. An analytical model of extreme wave height trend is developed that can efficiently estimate the rate of change in the extreme wave heights using extreme wind speed information.

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