Statistical dynamic models of social systems: Discontinuity and conflict

1978 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. G. Bowers
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuval Hart ◽  
Moira R. Dillon ◽  
Andrew Marantan ◽  
Anna L. Cardenas ◽  
Elizabeth Spelke ◽  
...  

AbstractGeometric reasoning has an inherent dissonance: its abstract axioms and propositions refer to infinitesimal points and infinite straight lines while our perception of the physical world deals with fuzzy dots and curved stripes. How we use these disparate mechanisms to make geometric judgments remains unresolved. Here, we deploy a classically used cognitive geometric task - planar triangle completion - to study the statistics of errors in the location of the missing vertex. Our results show that the mean location has an error proportional to the side of the triangle, the standard deviation is sub-linearly dependent on the side length, and has a negative skewness. These scale-dependent responses directly contradict the conclusions of recent cognitive studies that innate Euclidean rules drive our geometric judgments. To explain our observations, we turn to a perceptual basis for geometric reasoning that balances the competing effects of local smoothness and global orientation of extrapolated trajectories. The resulting mathematical framework captures our observations and further predicts the statistics of the missing angle in a second triangle completion task. To go beyond purely perceptual geometric tasks, we carry out a categorical version of triangle completion that asks about the change in the missing angle after a change in triangle shape. The observed responses show a systematic scale-dependent discrepancy at odds with rule-based Euclidean reasoning, but one that is completely consistent with our framework. All together, our findings point to the use of statistical dynamic models of the noisy perceived physical world, rather than on the abstract rules of Euclid in determining how we reason geometrically.


2021 ◽  
Vol 304 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Isroil Jumanov ◽  
Olim Djumanov ◽  
Rustam Safarov

Constructive approaches, principles, and models for optimizing the identification of micro-objects have been developed based on the use of combined statistical, dynamic models and neural networks with mechanisms for filtering noise and foreign particles of images of medical objects and pollen grains. Algorithms for learning neural networks under conditions of a priori insufficiency, uncertainty of parameters, and low accuracy of data processing are investigated. The mechanisms of contour selection, segmentation, obtaining the boundaries of segments with hard and soft thresholds, filtering using the morphological features of the image have been developed [1]. Mechanisms for recognition and classification of images, adaptation of parameter values, tuning of the network structure, approximation and smoothing of random emissions, bursts in the image contour are proposed. A mechanism for suppressing impulse noise and noise is implemented based on various filtering methods, preserving the boundaries of objects and small-sized parts. Mathematical expressions are obtained for estimating the identification errors caused by nonstationarity, inadequacy of approximation, interpolation, and extrapolation of the image contour. A software package for the recognition and classification of micro-objects has been developed. The results were obtained for correct, incorrect recognition, as well as rejected pollen samples, which were synthesized with cubic, biquadratic, interpolation spline-functions and wavelet transforms.


2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-17
Author(s):  
Patrick R. Walden

Both educational and health care organizations are in a constant state of change, whether triggered by national, regional, local, or organization-level policy. The speech-language pathologist/audiologist-administrator who aids in the planning and implementation of these changes, however, may not be familiar with the expansive literature on change in organizations. Further, how organizational change is planned and implemented is likely affected by leaders' and administrators' personal conceptualizations of social power, which may affect how front line clinicians experience organizational change processes. The purpose of this article, therefore, is to introduce the speech-language pathologist/audiologist-administrator to a research-based classification system for theories of change and to review the concept of power in social systems. Two prominent approaches to change in organizations are reviewed and then discussed as they relate to one another as well as to social conceptualizations of power.


1972 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter L. Wilkins ◽  
Blair W. McDonald ◽  
Allen Jones ◽  
Lee Murdy ◽  
Lawrence R. James ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.


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