Accuracy of advanced cancer patients' life expectancy estimates: The role of race and source of life expectancy information

9519 Background: Many oncologists are reluctant to discuss life expectancy with advanced cancer patients. We examined the frequency of prognostic disclosure and its impact on patients’ prognostic understanding, the patient-doctor relationship, and psychological distress. Methods: Coping with Cancer was an NCI-funded, multi-site prospective cohort of 726 patients with advanced incurable cancer, enrolled 2002-2008. At baseline, patients were asked if their oncologist had ever discussed prognosis, and if so what estimate was communicated. Patients also estimated their prognosis. The therapeutic alliance scale measured patient-doctor relationship, and the McGill QOL instrument assessed symptoms of depression and anxiety. Multivariable analyses (MVA) assessed relationships between prognostic disclosure and psychological symptoms, controlling for confounds. Results: Among this cohort of terminally ill patients (median survival 4mos), most (72%) wanted to be told their life expectancy. Only 19.8% (104/525) of patients had received a prognostic estimate from their oncologist (median estimate 6mos; IQR 6-15mos). When queried about factors informing their prognostic understanding, 85.9% of patients cited personal or religious beliefs; only 11.7% cited a physician’s estimate. Of the 299 patients willing to estimate their life expectancy, patients who had been previously informed of their prognosis were substantially more realistic in their own estimate (median 12mos v 48mos, Wilcoxon test p<0.001). Moreover, patients’ and oncologists’ prognostic estimates were significantly correlated (ρ=0.49, p<0.001). Prognostic disclosure was not associated with poor patient-doctor relationship rating (Fisher’s Exact, p=0.625), nor was it associated with depressive symptoms (β 0.06, p=0.242) or anxiety (β 0.06, p=0.234) in MVA. Conclusions: Few advanced cancer patients are informed of their life expectancy, although most want this information. Prognostic disclosure is associated with substantial improvement in patients’ prognostic understanding, without compromising the patient-doctor relationship or increasing psychological distress.

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Advanced cancer patients’ changes in terminal illness understanding (TIU) and their psychological well-being.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2019.37.15_suppl.11617 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽

pp. 11617-11617

Author(s):

Login S. George ◽

Megan Johnson Shen ◽

Paul K. Maciejewski ◽

Andrew S. Epstein ◽

Holly Gwen Prigerson

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Cancer Patients ◽

Advanced Cancer ◽

Psychological Symptoms ◽

Treatment Decision ◽

Well Being ◽

Advanced Cancer Patients ◽

Psychological Well Being ◽

Change Scores

11617 Background: Although accurate TIU is necessary for informed treatment decision-making, clinicians worry that patients’ recognition of the terminal nature of their illness may lower psychological well-being. This study examines if such recognition is associated with lowered psychological well-being, that persists over time. Methods: Data came from 87 advanced cancer patients, with a life expectancy of less than 6 months. Patients were assessed pre and post an oncology visit to discuss cancer restaging scan results, and again one month later (follow-up). TIU was assessed at pre and post as the sum of four indicator variables — understanding of terminal nature of illness, curability, stage, and life-expectancy — and a TIU change score was computed (post minus pre). Psychological well-being (psychological symptoms subscale, McGill questionnaire) was assessed at pre, post, and follow-up, and two change scores were computed (post minus pre; follow-up minus post). Results: Changes toward more accurate TIU was associated with a corresponding decline in psychological well-being ( r = -0.33, p < .01), but thereafter was associated with subsequent improvements in psychological well-being ( r = .40, p < .001). This pattern persisted even after adjustment for relevant demographic factors, prognostic discussion, scan results, and physical well-being change. TIU change scores ranged from positive to negative, with some participants showing improvements in TIU ( n = 19), some showing decrements in TIU ( n = 14), and others showing stable TIU ( n = 54). Among patients with improved TIU, psychological well-being initially decreased, but subsequently recovered [7.03 (2.23) to 6.30 (1.80), to 7.63 (2.08)]; the stable TIU group showed relatively unchanged well-being [7.34 (2.37) to 7.45 (2.32), to 7.36 (2.66)], and the less accurate TIU group showed an initial improvement followed by a subsequent decline [6.30 (2.62) to 7.36 (2.04), to 5.63 (3.40)]. Conclusions: Improved TIU may be associated with initial decrements in psychological well-being, followed by patients rebounding to baseline levels. Concerns about psychological harm may not need to be a deterrent to having prognostic discussions with patients.

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