scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clementine Dalelane ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Kristina Fröhlich
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Higher Order Modes ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals Composite analysis of the tropopause inversion layer in extratropical baroclinic waves

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 6621-6636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thorsten Kaluza ◽  
Daniel Kunkel ◽  
Peter Hoor
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The evolution of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) during cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic storm track is investigated using operational meteorological analysis data (Integrated Forecast System from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). For this a total of 130 cyclones have been analysed during the months August through October between 2010 and 2014 over the North Atlantic. Their paths of migration along with associated flow features in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) have been tracked based on the mean sea level pressure field. Subsets of the 130 cyclones have been used for composite analysis using minimum sea level pressure to filter the cyclones based on their strength. The composite structure of the TIL strength distribution in connection with the overall UTLS flow strongly resembles the structure of the individual cyclones. Key results are that a strong dipole in TIL strength forms in regions of cyclonic wrap-up of UTLS air masses of different origin and isentropic potential vorticity. These air masses are associated with the cyclonic rotation of the underlying cyclones. The maximum values of enhanced static stability above the tropopause occur north and northeast of the cyclone centre, vertically aligned with outflow regions of strong updraft and cloud formation up to the tropopause, which are situated in anticyclonic flow patterns in the upper troposphere. These regions are co-located with a maximum of vertical shear of the horizontal wind. The strong wind shear within the TIL results in a local minimum of Richardson numbers, representing the possibility for turbulent instability and potential mixing (or air mass exchange) within regions of enhanced static stability in the lowermost stratosphere.

scholarly journals Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (13) ◽  
pp. 4981-4989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica S. Kenigson ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Yanto ◽  
Mike Jasinski
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Shift ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Northeast Coast

Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO–sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. These results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, to achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC.

Importance of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Events for Seasonal Predictability of Sea Level Pressure over the North Atlantic and Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Baehr ◽  
Simon Wett ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Daniela Domeisen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>The downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere can be significant during boreal winter when the polar vortex is most variable, when major circulation changes in the stratosphere can impact the tropospheric flow. These strong and weak vortex events, the latter also referred to as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), are capable of influencing the tropospheric circulation down to the sea level on timescales from weeks to months. Thus, the occurrence of stratospheric polar vortex events influences the seasonal predictability of sea level pressure (SLP), which is, over the Atlantic sector, strongly linked to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO).<br>We analyze the influence of the polar vortex on the seasonal predictability of SLP in a seasonal prediction system based on the mixed resolution configuration of the coupled Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), where we investigate a 30 member ensemble hindcast simulation covering 1982 -2016. Since the state of the polar vortex is predictable only a few weeks or even days ahead, the seasonal prediction system cannot exactly predict the day of occurrence of stratospheric events. However, making use of the large number of stratospheric polar vortex events in the ensemble hindcast simulation, we present a statistical analysis of the influence of a correct or incorrect prediction of the stratospheric vortex state on the seasonal predictability of SLP over the North Atlantic and Europe.</p>

scholarly journals Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2451-2469 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. L. Woodworth ◽  
M. Á. Morales Maqueda ◽  
W. R. Gehrels ◽  
V. M. Roussenov ◽  
R. G. Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Cape Hatteras ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation
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