Abstract
The possible role of stratospheric variability on the tropospheric teleconnection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region is addressed by comparing results from two ensembles of simulations performed with an atmosphere general circulation model fully resolving the stratosphere (with the top at 0.01 hPa) and its low-top version (with the top at 10 hPa). Both ensembles of simulations consist of nine members, covering the 1980–99 period and are forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures. It is found that both models capture the sensitivity of the averaged polar winter lower stratosphere to ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere, although with a reduced amplitude for the low-top model. In late winter and spring, the ENSO response at the surface is instead different in the two models. A large-scale coherent pattern in sea level pressure, with high pressures over the Arctic and low pressures over western and central Europe and the North Pacific, is found in the February–March mean of the high-top model. In the low-top model, the Arctic high pressure and the western and central Europe low pressure are very much reduced. The high-top minus low-top model difference in the ENSO temperature and precipitation anomalies is that North Europe is colder and the Northern Atlantic storm track is shifted southward in the high-top model. In addition, it has been found that major sudden stratospheric warming events are virtually lacking in the low-top model, while their frequency of occurrence is broadly realistic in the high-top model. Given that this is a major difference in the dynamical behavior of the stratosphere of the two models and that these events are favored by ENSO, it is concluded that the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming events affects the reported differences in the tropospheric ENSO–NAE teleconnection. Given that the essence of the high-top minus low-top model difference is a more annular (or zonal) pattern of the anomaly in sea level pressure, relatively larger over the Arctic and the NAE regions, this interpretation is consistent with the observational evidence that sudden stratospheric warmings play a role in giving rise to persistent Arctic Oscillation anomalies at the surface.
Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector
