Linking Equatorial African precipitation to Kelvin wave processes in the CP4-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation

Observational studies have shown the link between Convectively Coupled KelvinWaves (CCKWs) and eastward propagating rainfall anomalies. We explore the mechanisms in which CCKWs modulate the propagation of precipitation from west to east over Equatorial Africa. We examine a multi-year state-of-the-art Africa-wide climate simulation from a convection permitting model (CP4A) along with a parameterised global driving-model simulation (G25) and evaluate both against observations (TRMM) and ERA-Interim (ERA-I), with a focus on precipitation and Kelvin wave activity. We show that the two important related processes through which CCKWs influence the propagation of convection and precipitation from west to east across Equatorial Africa are: 1) low-level westerly wind anomalies that lead to increased low-level convergence, and 2) westerly moisture flux anomalies that amplify the lower-to-mid-tropospheric specific humidity. We identify Kelvin wave activity using zonal wind and geopotential height. Using lagged composite analysis, we show that modelled precipitation over Equatorial Africa can capture the eastward propagating precipitation signal that is associated with CCKWs. Composite analysis on strong (high-amplitude) CCKWs shows that both CP4A and G25 capture the connection between the eastward propagating precipitation anomalies and CCKWs. In comparison to TRMM, however, the precipitation signal is weaker in G25, while CP4A has a more realistic signal. Results show that both CP4A and G25 generally simulate the key horizontal structure of CCKWs, with anomalous low-level westerlies in phase with positive precipitation anomalies. These findings suggest that for operational forecasting, it is important to monitor the day-to-day Kelvin wave activity across Equatorial Africa.

A confirmatory composite analysis for the Italian validation of the interactions anxiousness scale: a higher-order version

This study examined the factor structure and model specifications of the Interaction Anxiousness Scale (IAS) with confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) using partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) with a sample of Italian adolescents ($$n = 764$$ n = 764 ). The CCA and PLS-SEM results identified the reflective nature of the IAS sub-scale scores, supporting an alternative measurement model of the IAS scores as a second-order reflective–reflective model.

Dampak Program Upaya Khusus Padi, Jagung, dan Kedelai (UPSUS PAJALE) terhadap Tingkat Ketahanan Pangan di Kabupaten Malang

Food security in some area can be measured by Food Security and Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA). FSVA is measured with three aspects which are food availability, accessibility, and utilization aspects. Based on FSVA of East Java 2018, there are 3 sub-districts in Malang Regency in insecurity condition. Food security problems in Malang Regency are low rice land area, poverty, and low clean water availability. One of efforts to solve these problems are with Special Efforts Rice, Corn, and Soybean Program. To determine the impact of this program on levels food security by using FSVA and the differences between sub-districts participating in the UPSUS PAJALE activity and sub-districts that did not participate. This study is aim to describe food security level in Malang Regency and analyze impact of Special Efforts Rice, Corn, and Soybean Program on food security level in Malang Regency. The data analysis method used is the analysis of the Food Security and Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA) in the form of individual indicator analysis, composite analysis, spatial analysis, and descriptive analysis. Overall, the condition of food security in Malang Regency in 2018 and 2019 is included in priority 4 (resistant condition), so there is no significant change, but there are no sub-districts included in priority 1 or very food vulnerable. The UPSUS PAJALE program is also able to maintain the level of food security in 2018-2019 which is included in priority 4 (somewhat resistant), but has not increased the level of food security.

Relationship between Early-Stage Features and Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

The relationship between early-stage features and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) was investigated by ensemble machine learning methods and composite analysis in this study. By selecting key features of TCs’ vortex attributes and environmental conditions, a two-step AdaBoost model demonstrated accuracy of about 75% in distinguishing weak and strong TCs at genesis and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.30 for LMI estimation from the early stage of strong TCs, suggesting an underlying relationship between LMI and early-stage features. The composite analysis reveals that TCs with higher LMI are characterized by lower latitude embedded in a continuous band of high low-troposphere vorticity, more compact circulation at both the upper and lower levels of the troposphere, stronger circulation at the mid-troposphere, a higher outflow layer with stronger convection, a more symmetrical structure of high-level moisture distribution, a slower translation speed, and a greater intensification rate around genesis. Specifically, TCs with greater “tightness” at genesis may have a better chance of strengthening to major TCs (LMI ≥ 96 kt), since it represents a combination of the inner and outer-core wind structure related to TCs’ rapid intensification and eyewall replacement cycle.