This chapter examines the relation between futures prices relative to the spot price of the underlying asset. Basic futures pricing is characterized by the convergence of futures and spot prices during the delivery period just before contract expiration. However, “no arbitrage” arguments that dictate the fair value of futures contracts largely determine pricing relations before expiration. Although the cost of carry model in its various forms largely determines futures prices before expiration, the chapter presents alternative explanations. Related commodity futures complexes exhibit mean-reverting behavior, as seen in commodity spread markets and other interrelated commodities. Energy commodity futures prices can be somewhat accurately modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, although whether these models provide economically significant excess returns is uncertain.
