Market Backwardation and The Theory of Storage: An Empirical Investigation of Indian Gold Futures Markets

The backwardation and contango in the futures markets are explained by two popular theories, namely the theory of storage and the theory of risk premium. The investment assets tend to follow the theory of risk premium, whereas the consumption assets are likely to follow the theory of storage. As India is the largest importer of gold, and gold is used for consumption purposes (mostly by jewellers, who store gold as a consumption commodity), we empirically test whether backwardation in the gold market is explained by the theory of storage. We use the indirect test of the theory of storage developed by Fama and French (1988 , Journal of Finance, Vol. 4, p. 1075), calculate the interest adjusted basis (IAB) and test the implications of the theory of storage. We also use two asymmetric models of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) family to understand the asymmetric volatility of IAB. We find that the Indian gold futures markets partially follow the theory of storage; however, we do not find any support of asymmetric behaviour of IAB in the contango and backwardation markets. Our results suggest that in the context of the Indian gold market, keeping inventory has minimal benefits, and gold behaves more like an investment asset.

Dynamics of Arbitrage

We study the dynamics of cash-and-carry arbitrage using the U.S. crude oil market. Sizable arbitrage-related inventory movements occur at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract delivery point but not at other storage locations, where instead, operational factors explain most inventory changes. We add to the theory-of-storage literature by introducing two new features. First, due to arbitrageurs contracting ahead, inventories respond to not only contemporaneous but also lagged futures spreads. Second, storage-capacity limits can impede cash-and-carry arbitrage, leading to the persistence of unexploited arbitrage opportunities. Our findings suggest that arbitrage-induced inventory movements are, on average, price stabilizing.

Comparison of commodity future pricing approaches with cointegration techniques

Commodity future prices are explained either by price expectations and a risk premium in the theory of normal backwardation or with the theory of storage in a cost of carry valuation. Both approaches are compared in separate equations with Johansen cointegration tests. The data sample contains five LME metals with maturities of 3–27 months and real inventory data. It is found that expected spot prices explain only short maturity future prices. But the cost of carry approach, with the inventory level-dependent convenience yield, explains prices for all maturities.