The Impact of Coupled Air‐sea Interaction on Extreme East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5 Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taehyung Kim ◽  
Soheon Lee ◽  
Hye‐Jin Park ◽  
Dong‐Hyun Cha ◽  
Kyong‐Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP5 Coupled Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7662-7675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Jung Ok ◽  
Jun-Hyeok Son ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Moisture Convergence ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract Future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are estimated from historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) experiments of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs show that, like the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models produce slightly smaller precipitation. A moisture budget analysis illustrates that this precipitation deficit is due to an underestimation in evaporation and ensuing moisture flux convergence. Of the two components of the moisture flux convergence (i.e., moisture convergence and horizontal moist advection), moisture convergence associated with mass convergence is underestimated to a greater degree. Precipitation is anticipated to increase by 10%–15% toward the end of the twenty-first century over the major monsoonal front region. A statistically significant increase is predicted to occur mostly over the Baiu region and to the north and northeast of the Korean Peninsula. This increase is attributed to an increase in evaporation and moist flux convergence (with enhanced moisture convergence contributing the most) induced by the northwestward strengthening of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), a characteristic feature of the future EASM that occurred in CMIP5 simulations. Along the northern and northwestern flank of the strengthened NPSH, intensified southerly or southwesterly winds lead to the increase in moist convergence, enhancing precipitation over these areas. However, future precipitation over the East China Sea is projected to decrease. In the EASM domain, a local mechanism prevails, with increased moisture and moisture convergence leading to a greater increase in moist static energy in the lower troposphere than in the upper troposphere, reducing tropospheric stability.

scholarly journals Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5205-5220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Burke ◽  
Peter Stott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. The authors present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. The results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years and an increased number of dry days. However, the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region.

Impact of multiyear La Niña events on the South and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and CMIP5 models

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 6989-7011 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. N. Raj Deepak ◽  
Jasti S. Chowdary ◽  
A. Ramu Dandi ◽  
G. Srinivas ◽  
Anant Parekh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The South ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Ulrich Cubasch ◽  
Christopher Kadow
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important part of the global climate system and plays a vital role in the Asian climate. Its sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictability is a long-standing issue within the monsoon scientist community. In this study, we analyse the seasonal (with six months lead time) prediction skill of the EASM rainfall and its associated general circulation in non-initialised and initialised simulations for the years 1979–2005 performed by six prediction systems (i.e., the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, the GFDL-CM2p1, the HadCM3, the MIROC5 and the MPI-ESM-LR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP 5). We find that the simulation of the zonal wind is significantly improved in initialised simulations compared to non-initialized simulations. Based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM, we selected an EASM index based upon the zonal wind for further analysis. The assessment show that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 add prediction skill in simulating the EASM index with initialisation, the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, and the MPI-ESM-LR change the skill insignificantly, and the HadCM3 indicates a decreased skill score. The different response to the initialisation can be traced back to the ability of the models to capture the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-EASM coupled mode, particularly the Southern Oscillation-EASM coupled mode. In summary, we find that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 are capable to predict the EASM on a seasonal time-scale after initialisation.

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