Modelling Real Estate Markets at the Local Level

Author(s):  
Chris Leishman
Author(s):  
Maximilian Zurek

AbstractReal estate price growth affects credit risk for several reasons: it provides input for economic forecasts as it’s closely tied to economic growth; when used as collateral by banks, rising real estate prices may decrease both expected and actual losses; and banks may become less risk averse in lending practices in the presence of rising property prices. Therefore, we analyze these effects on loan portfolios’ estimated and realized risks on a local level. Using data of 390 German savings banks, however, we find that real estate prices have little or no impact on savings banks’ credit portfolio risk or risk precautions.


1991 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Logan

Urbanization is taking on a more global character, with increasing scale of development organizations and new linkages between developers and financial institutions. These changes bring into question the way sociologists think about urbanization processes. This paper argues that the reshaping of real estate markets under the influence of global restructuring is not a one-way process, nor is it necessarily rational or functional. One should be skeptical of theoretical approaches from either an ecological or Marxist perspective that attribute autonomous causal power to “globalization” or “economic restructuring.” Deal-making, politics, mistakes, and miscalculations are as essential to the interorganizational network at the global level as at the local level. The challenge for urban theory is not to shift from local to global explanations, but rather to examine how processes at both levels intersect and collide with one another.


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