This research was conducted to assess the social and ecological resiliences of mangrove ecosystem to sea level rise as a consequence of climate change. Resilience Index (RI) method was used range from 0 to 1. Sixteen resilience indicators, both ecological and social, are selected, developed, and evaluated. The indicators consist of mangrove coverage, density and diversity, aquatic fauna species, tidal flooding, salinity, sedimentation, land use, mangrove dependency and time allocation, conflicts potential, knowledge, the compliance rate, types of livelihood, institution cap, and level of education. Evaluation result indicate that the bay was divided into two categories of resilience; the majority has middle resilience because the mangrove coverage, density, and land use are high, with composite RI (CRI) range from 0.45 to 0.58. This was found in the villages of Muara, Langensari, Blanakan, Jayamukti, and Rawameneng. Only one village has high CRI of 0.69, such as the Cilamaya Girang. The main ecological factors that contribute to the high resilience of the area is the rate of sedimentation of 2 meters per year and rare tidal flooding, while the factor that contributes most to the impediment of social resilience is public knowledge about the importance of mangrove ecosystems©Penelitian ini merupakan penilaian parameter resiliensi ekologis-sosial ekosistem mangrove terhadap penaikan muka air laut sebagai konsekuensi dari perubahan iklim. Analisis yang dilakukan adalah untuk menghitung indeks resiliensi (Resiliency Index/RI) yang menggunakan skala 0-1. Enam belas parameter (ekologis-sosial) digunakan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu: penutupan, kerapatan, keanekaragaman jenis mangrove, jenis fauna akuatik, salinitas, banjir pasang, penggunaan lahan, laju sedimentasi, ketergantungan masyarakat, alokasi waktu pemanfaatan ekosistem mangrove, potensi konflik, tingkat kepatuhan masyarakat, pemahaman fungsi mangrove, jenis mata pencaharian, kelembagaan, dan tingkat pendidikan. Hasil analisis RI menunjukkan, Teluk Blanakan hanya memiliki 2 tingkat resiliensi, yaitu Tingkat Menengah dan Tingkat Tinggi. Tingkat Menengah memiliki penutupan mangrove yang rendah, kerapatan mangrove yang rendah, dan ketergantungan pemanfaatan mangrove yang sangat tinggi dengan kisaran nilai RI 0.45-0.58 yang ditempati oleh Desa Rawameneng, Jayamukti, Blanakan, Langensari, dan Muara. Tingkat Tinggi dengan nilai RI 0.69 hanya ditempati oleh Desa Cilamaya Girang, karena memiliki laju sedimentasi dan ketergantungan masyarakat terhadap kawasan mangrove yang rendah©
The Effects of Sea Level Rise on Salinity and Tidal Flooding Patterns in the Guadiana Estuary
