Alternative Capture-Recapture Point and Interval Estimators Based on Two Surveillance Streams

BACKGROUND Population size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam relied on the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package and reports from the city police department. The two estimates vary widely. OBJECTIVE To estimate the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam METHODS Using Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), we implemented two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017 in 7 out of 24 districts. The study included men or women aged at least 18 years who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days and who had lived in the city the past six months. We calculated two sets of size estimates, the first assumed that all participants in each survey round resided in the district where the survey was conducted, the second, used the district of residence as reported by the participant. District estimates were summed to obtain an aggregate estimate for the seven districts. To calculate the city total, we weighted the population size estimates for each district by the inverse of the stratum specific sampling probabilities. RESULTS The first estimate resulted in a population size of 19,155 (95% CI: 17,006–25,039). The second one generated a smaller population size estimate of 12,867 (95% CI: 11,312–17,393). CONCLUSIONS The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided two disparate estimates of PWID in HCMC. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

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Prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders in Lothian, Scotland: an estimate using the "capture-recapture" technique

Archives of Disease in Childhood ◽

10.1136/adc.2004.049601 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 91 (1) ◽

pp. 16-19 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

M J Harrison

Keyword(s):

Autistic Spectrum Disorders ◽

Autistic Spectrum ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Spectrum Disorders

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Multiple sclerosis prevalence in Malaga, Southern Spain estimated by the capture–recapture method

Multiple Sclerosis Journal ◽

10.1177/1352458511421917 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 372-376 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

O Fernández ◽

V Fernández ◽

M Guerrero ◽

A León ◽

JC López-Madrona ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Multiple Sclerosis ◽

Prevalence Rate ◽

Latitudinal Gradient ◽

Southern Spain ◽

Median Frequency ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Current Prevalence ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

High Figure ◽

Southern European Countries

Background: Although not definitively proven, there is commonly accepted to be a latitudinal gradient in the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is more frequent in temperate zones. The European Mediterranean countries are situated in a zone of median frequency, although ever increasing figures have been noted in the last decades. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the current prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain. Methods: The capture–recapture method (CRM) uses independent sources of data and permits the number of non-registered cases of a given disease to be estimated, and by doing so, to avoid ascertainment bias. Results: Use of this method showed the estimated prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain, to be 125/105 (95% confidence interval: 102/105–169/105), higher than the figures published previously. Conclusions: Although we recognize that these data need to be confirmed in further studies and in other areas of the country using a similar method, we believe this study is the first to find such high figure of prevalence, being very similar to the figures reported in recent years in other southern European countries.

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Non-Invasive Molecular Survey of Sarcoptic Mange in Wildlife: Diagnostic Performance in Wolf Faecal Samples Evaluated by Multi-Event Capture–Recapture Models

Pathogens ◽

10.3390/pathogens10020243 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 243

Author(s):

Julieta Rousseau ◽

Mónia Nakamura ◽

Helena Rio-Maior ◽

Francisco Álvares ◽

Rémi Choquet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Molecular Detection ◽

High Specificity ◽

Sarcoptes Scabiei ◽

Sarcoptic Mange ◽

Diagnostic Specificity ◽

Non Invasive ◽

Faecal Samples ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

The Mean ◽

Event Capture

Sarcoptic mange is globally enzootic, and non-invasive methods with high diagnostic specificity for its surveillance in wildlife are lacking. We describe the molecular detection of Sarcoptes scabiei in non-invasively collected faecal samples, targeting the 16S rDNA gene. We applied this method to 843 Iberian wolf Canis lupus signatus faecal samples collected in north-western Portugal (2006–2018). We further integrated this with serological data (61 samples from wolf and 20 from red fox Vulpes vulpes, 1997–2019) in multi-event capture–recapture models. The mean predicted prevalence by the molecular analysis of wolf faecal samples from 2006–2018 was 7.2% (CI95 5.0–9.4%; range: 2.6–11.7%), highest in 2009. The mean predicted seroprevalence in wolves was 24.5% (CI95 18.5–30.6%; range: 13.0–55.0%), peaking in 2006–2009. Multi-event capture–recapture models estimated 100% diagnostic specificity and moderate diagnostic sensitivity (30.0%, CI95 14.0–53.0%) for the molecular method. Mange-infected individually identified wolves showed a tendency for higher mortality versus uninfected wolves (ΔMortality 0.150, CI95 −0.165–0.458). Long-term serology data highlights the endemicity of sarcoptic mange in wild canids but uncovers multi-year epidemics. This study developed and evaluated a novel method for surveying sarcoptic mange in wildlife populations by the molecular detection of S. scabiei in faecal samples, which stands out for its high specificity and non-invasive character.

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FRI0337 INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF MYOSITIS ASSESSED BY MULTI-SOURCES CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODOLOGY

10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-eular.5556 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

alain meyer ◽

Léa Debrut ◽

Lionel Spielmann ◽

Gilles Blaison ◽

Pierre Kieffer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Capture Recapture

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Drug-Induced Acute Kidney Injury: A Study from the French Medical Administrative and the French National Pharmacovigilance Databases Using Capture-Recapture Method

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10020168 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 168

Author(s):

Anne-Lise Rolland ◽

Anne-Sophie Garnier ◽

Katy Meunier ◽

Guillaume Drablier ◽

Marie Briet

Keyword(s):

Acute Kidney Injury ◽

Medical Information ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Kidney Injury ◽

International Classification Of Diseases ◽

Administrative Databases ◽

Health Concern ◽

Medical Information System ◽

Drug Induced ◽

Capture Recapture

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a public health concern. Among the pathological situations leading to AKI, drugs are preventable factors but are still under-notified. We aimed to provide an overview of drug-induced AKI (DIAKI) using pharmacovigilance and medical administrative databases Methods: A query of the PMSI database (French Medical Information System Program) of adult inpatient hospital stays between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2018 was performed using ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision) codes to identify AKI cases which were reviewed by a nephrologist and a pharmacovigilance expert to identify DIAKI cases. In parallel, DIAKIs notified in the French Pharmacovigilance Database (FPVDB) were collected. A capture-recapture method was performed to estimate the total number of DIAKIs. Results: The estimated total number of DIAKIs was 521 (95%CI 480; 563), representing 20.0% of all AKIs. The notification was at a rate of 12.9% (95%CI 10.0; 15.8). According to the KDIGO classification, 50.2% of the DIAKI cases were stage 1 and 49.8% stage 2 and 3. The mortality rate was 11.1% and 9.6% required hemodialysis. Conclusion: This study showed that drugs are involved in a significant proportion of patients developing AKI during a hospital stay and emphasizes the severity of DIAKI cases.

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