Wind Power Forecasting Using Dynamic Bayesian Models

2014 ◽  
pp. 184-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo H. Ibargüengoytia ◽  
Alberto Reyes ◽  
Inés Romero-Leon ◽  
David Pech ◽  
Uriel A. García ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Bayesian Models ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

Development and Operational Status of Wind Power Forecasting System

2013 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 366-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isao Aoki ◽  
Ryoichi Tanikawa ◽  
Nobuyuki Hayasaki ◽  
Mitsuhiro Matsumoto ◽  
Shigero Enomoto
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Power Forecasting

Time Series Model of Wind Power Forecasting Error by using Beta Distribution for Optimal Sizing of Battery Storage

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-224
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Dui ◽  
Masakazu Ito ◽  
Yu Fujimoto ◽  
Yasuhiro Hayashi ◽  
Guiping Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Beta Distribution ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Battery Storage ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Optimal Sizing ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Power Forecasting

Wind Power Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform and General Regression Neural Network for Ontario Electricity Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-26
Author(s):  
Sumit Saroha ◽  
Sanjeev K. Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
General Regression Neural Network ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
General Regression ◽  
Power Forecasting

Objective: The estimation accuracy of wind power is an important subject of concern for reliable grid operations and taking part in open access. So, with an objective to improve the wind power forecasting accuracy. Methods: This article presents Wavelet Transform (WT) based General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) with statistical time series input selection technique. Results: The results of the proposed model are compared with four different models namely naïve benchmark model, feed forward neural networks, recurrent neural networks and GRNN on the basis of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) performance metric. Conclusion: The historical data used by the presented models has been collected from the Ontario Electricity Market for the year 2011 to 2015 and tested for a long time period of more than two years (28 months) from November 2012 to February 2015 with one month estimation moving window.

Impact of the accuracy of NWP wind speed forecasts on wind power forecasting

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yimei Wang ◽  
Yongqian Liu ◽  
Peng Song ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
Zechun Hu
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

scholarly journals Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Donadio ◽  
Jiannong Fang ◽  
Fernando Porté-Agel
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Power Forecasting

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real-time forecasts of wind farm power outputs can help to mitigate the problem. Among the various techniques developed for wind power forecasting, the hybridization of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) are attracting many researchers world-wide nowadays, because it has the potential to yield more accurate forecasts. In this paper, two hybrid NWP and ANN models for wind power forecasting over a highly complex terrain are proposed. The developed models have a fine temporal resolution and a sufficiently large prediction horizon (>6 h ahead). Model 1 directly forecasts the energy production of each wind turbine. Model 2 forecasts first the wind speed, then converts it to the power using a fitted power curve. Effects of various modeling options (selection of inputs, network structures, etc.) on the model performance are investigated. Performances of different models are evaluated based on four normalized error measures. Statistical results of model predictions are presented with discussions. Python was utilized for task automation and machine learning. The end result is a fully working library for wind power predictions and a set of tools for running the models in forecast mode. It is shown that the proposed models are able to yield accurate wind farm power forecasts at a site with high terrain and flow complexities. Especially, for Model 2, the normalized Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error are obtained as 8.76% and 13.03%, respectively, lower than the errors reported by other models in the same category.

scholarly journals Average Monthly Wind Power Forecasting Using Fuzzy Approach

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 30426-30440
Author(s):  
Iram Akhtar ◽  
Sheeraz Kirmani ◽  
Mohmmad Ahmad ◽  
Sultan Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Fuzzy Approach ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting
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