Towards Operational Prediction of El Niño by a Coupled Ocean — Atmosphere Model

2003 ◽  
pp. 369-373
Author(s):  
Hiroki Kondo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Atmosphere Model

scholarly journals Data assimilation by an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Niño

2000 ◽  
Vol 105 (C11) ◽  
pp. 26063-26087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Lee ◽  
Jean-Philippe Boulanger ◽  
Alex Foo ◽  
Lee-Lueng Fu ◽  
Ralf Giering
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Atmosphere Model

scholarly journals The effects of model climate bias on ENSO variability and ensemble prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. C215-C230
Author(s):  
S. L. Osbrough ◽  
J. S. Frederiksen ◽  
C. S. Frederiksen
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Computational Techniques ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Atmosphere Model

New methods are presented for determining the role of coupled ocean-atmosphere model climate bias on the strength and variability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and on the seasonal ensemble prediction of El Nino and La Nina events. An intermediate complexity model with a global atmosphere coupled to a Pacific basin ocean is executed with parallelised algorithms to produce computationally efficient year-long forecasts of large ensembles of coupled flow fields, beginning every month between 1980 and 1999. Firstly, the model is provided with forcing functions that reproduce the average annual cycle of climatology of the atmosphere and ocean based on reanalysed observations. We also configure the model to generate realistic ENSO fluctuations. Next, an ensemble prediction scheme is employed which produces perturbations that amplify rapidly over a month. These perturbations are added to the analyses and give the initial conditions for the ensemble forecasts. The skill of the forecasts is presented and the dependency on the annual and ENSO cycles determined. Secondly, we replace the forcing functions in our model with functions that reproduce the averaged annual cycles of climatology of two state of the art, comprehensive Coupled General Circulation Models. The changes in skill of subsequent ensemble forecasts elucidate the roles of model bias in error growth and potential predictability. References C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, and R. C. Balgovind. ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 59:35–52, 2010a. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/papers.php?year=2010. C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, and R. C. Balgovind. Dynamic variability and seasonal predictability in an intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference, CTAC-2012, volume 54 of ANZIAM J., pages C34–C55, 2013a. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v54i0.6296. C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, J. M. Sisson, and S. L. Osbrough. Trends and projections of Southern Hemisphere baroclinicity: the role of external forcing and impact on Australian rainfall. Clim. Dyn., 48:3261–3282, 2017. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3263-8. J. S. Frederiksen, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. L. Osbrough. Seasonal ensemble prediction with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 59:53–66, 2010b. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/papers.php?year=2010. J. S. Frederiksen, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. L. Osbrough. Methods of ensemble prediction for seasonal forecasts with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference, CTAC-2012, volume 54 of ANZIAM J., pages C361–C376, 2013b. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v54i0.6509. P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, S. R. Jayne, D. M. Lawrence, R. B. Neale, P. J. Rasch, M. Vertenstein, P. H. Worley, Z.-L. Yang, and M. Zhang. The community Climate System Model version 4. J. Clim., 24:4973–4991, 2011. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1. S. Grainger, C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng. Assessment of modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models. J. Clim., 27:8107–8125, 2014. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00251.1. E. Kalnay, M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, and D. Joseph. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77:437–472, 1996. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2. H. A. Rashid, A. Sullivan, A. C. Hirst, D. Bi, X. Zhou, and S. J. Marsland. Evaluation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the ACCESS coupled model simulations for CMIP5. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 63:161–180, 2013. doi:10.22499/2.6301.010. K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93:485–498, 2012. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

scholarly journals Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 10123-10139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Yang Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.

El Nino Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator

Science ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 264 (5155) ◽  
pp. 72-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tziperman ◽  
L. Stone ◽  
M. A. Cane ◽  
H. Jarosh
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

scholarly journals Extended ENSO Predictions Using a Fully Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
First Time ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Using a fully coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation model assimilating only sea surface temperature, the authors found for the first time that several El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past two decades can be predicted at lead times of up to 2 yr. The El Niño condition in the 1997/98 winter can be predicted to some extent up to about a 1½-yr lead but with a weak intensity and large phase delay in the prediction of the onset of this exceptionally strong event. This is attributed to the influence of active and intensive stochastic westerly wind bursts during late 1996 to mid-1997, which are generally unpredictable at seasonal time scales. The cold signals in the 1984/85 and 1999/2000 winters during the peak phases of the past two long-lasting La Niña events are predicted well up to a 2-yr lead. Amazingly, the mild El Niño–like event of 2002/03 is also predicted well up to a 2-yr lead, suggesting a link between the prolonged El Niño and the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Seasonal climate anomalies over vast parts of the globe during specific ENSO years are also realistically predicted up to a 2-yr lead for the first time.

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