Trends in compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Europe

The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018 during winter and spring. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices – cold/dry, cold/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet. Also, we studying the connection between these indices and large-scale processes in the ocean-atmosphere system such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian Oscillation. The results have shown that positive trends in the region are typical of the combinations with the temperatures above the 75th percentile, i.e., the warm extremes in winter and spring. Negative trends were obtained for the cold extremes. Statistically significant increase in the number of days with warm extremes was observed in the northern parts of the region in winter and spring. The analysis of the impacts of the large-scale processes in oceans-atmosphere system showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation index has a strong positive and statistically significant correlation with the warm indices of compound extremes in the northern part of Eastern Europe in winter, while the Scandinavian Oscillation shows the opposite picture.

Heavy rainfall, floods, and flash floods influenced by high-speed solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system

Heavy rainfall events causing floods and flash floods are examined in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. The superposed epoch (SPE) analyses of solar wind variables have shown the tendency of severe weather to follow arrivals of high-speed streams from solar coronal holes. Precipitation data sets based on rain gauge and satellite sensor measurements are used to examine the relationship between the solar wind high-speed streams and daily precipitation rates over several midlatitude regions. The SPE analysis results show an increase in the occurrence of high precipitation rates following arrivals of high-speed streams, including recurrence with a solar rotation period of 27 d. The cross-correlation analysis applied to the SPE averages of the green (Fe XIV; 530.3 nm) corona intensity observed by ground-based coronagraphs, solar wind parameters, and daily precipitation rates show correlation peaks at lags spaced by solar rotation period. When the SPE analysis is limited to years around the solar minimum (2008–2009), which was dominated by recurrent coronal holes separated by ∼ 120∘ in heliographic longitude, significant cross-correlation peaks are found at lags spaced by 9 d. These results are further demonstrated by cases of heavy rainfall, floods and flash floods in Europe, Japan, and the USA, highlighting the role of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system in severe weather, mediated by aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves.

The Diversity of Exoplanets: From Interior Dynamics to Surface Expressions

The coupled interior–atmosphere system of terrestrial exoplanets remains poorly understood. Exoplanets show a wide variety of sizes, densities, surface temperatures, and interior structures, with important knock-on effects for this coupled system. Many exoplanets are predicted to have a “stagnant lid” at the surface, with a rigid stationary crust, sluggish mantle convection, and only minor volcanism. However, if exoplanets have Earth-like plate tectonics, which involves several discrete, slowly moving plates and vigorous tectono-magmatic activity, then this may be critical for planetary habitability and have implications for the development (and evolution) of life in the galaxy. Here, we summarize our current knowledge of coupled planetary dynamics in the context of exoplanet diversity.

Climate as a complex, self-regulating system

This paper explores whether climate is complicated or complex by examining the performance of a heat engine in the tropical Pacific, the Pacific Ocean heat engine, which is linked to a teleconnected network of circulation and oscillations. Sustained radiative forcing is widely expected to produce gradual change but instead produces step-wise regime shifts. The engine is a heat pump with cold-to-hot circulation maintained by kinetic energy produced by the Coriolis Effect. It is a fundamental response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere system to asymmetric circulation. This paper surveys emergent behaviours in climate models linked to such shifts. It explores how well models represent the heat engine, compares regime changes in models and observations, and examines how geostrophic controls on meridional heat transport set critical boundary conditions. The results reinforce the description of climate as a self-regulating system governed by the principle of least action. Teleconnected steady-state regimes are physically-induced by the need to maintain boundary-limited dissipation rates between the hemispheres, the equator and the poles. A sufficient imbalance of energy at the planetary surface produces regime shifts that switch between slow and fast dissipation pathways. The strength of coupling measured via heat engine characteristics is weaker in models than in the observed climate, failing to distinguish clearly between free and forced modes. The capacity of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to maintain homeostasis allows Earth’s climate to be classified physically rather than statistically, the basic unit of climate being the steady-state regime.

Understanding land surface-atmosphere interactions at the diurnal scale from energetic and thermodynamic constraints

<p>Land-atmosphere interactions are typically evaluated using numerical simulation models of increasingly greater complexity.  But what are the key, major constraints that determine the first-order controls of the land-atmosphere system?  Here, we present an alternative approach that is solely based on energetic and thermodynamic constraints of the coupled land-atmosphere system and show that this approach can reproduce observations at the diurnal scale very well.  The key concept we use is that turbulent heat fluxes are predominantly the result of an atmospheric heat engine that is driven by the heat input from the surface and that operates at the thermodynamic limit of maximum power.  This provides a closure for the magnitude of turbulent fluxes in the surface energy balance.  Interactions enter this approach mainly in two ways: First, the cooling effect of turbulent heat fluxes on surface temperature lowers the engine's efficiency, thereby setting the maximum power limit, and second, by heat storage changes in the lower atmosphere, which represent an entropy term inside the heat engine and alter the thermodynamic limit for power output.  Both effects are, however, well constrained by energy balances, yielding analytical solutions for energy balance partitioning during the day without the need for empirical parameters. The further partitioning into sensible and latent heat fluxes is obtained from the assumption of thermodynamic equilibrium at the surface where heat and moisture is added to the atmosphere (if sufficient soil water is accessible).  We then show that this approach works remarkably well in reproducing FluxNet observations over the diurnal cycle.  What this implies is that these physical constraints determine the first-order dynamics of the land-atmosphere system, enabling us to derive simple, physics-based estimates of climate, the dominant effects of vegetation, and the response of the coupled system to global climate change.</p>

What Solar–Terrestrial Link Researchers Should Know about Interplanetary Drivers

One of the most promising methods of research in solar–terrestrial physics is the comparison of the responses of the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system to various types of interplanetary disturbances (so-called “interplanetary drivers”). Numerous studies have shown that different types of drivers result in different reactions of the system for identical variations in the interplanetary magnetic field. In particular, the sheaths—compression regions before fast interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs)—have higher efficiency in terms of the generation of magnetic storms than ICMEs. The growing popularity of this method of research is accompanied by the growth of incorrect methodological approaches in such studies. These errors can be divided into four main classes: (i) using incorrect data with the identification of driver types published in other studies; (ii) using incorrect methods to identify the types of drivers and, as a result, misclassify the causes of magnetospheric-ionospheric disturbances; (iii) ignoring a frequent case with a complex, composite, nature of the driver (the presence of a sequence of several simple drivers) and matching the system response with only one of the drivers; for example, a magnetic storm is often generated by a sheath in front of ICME, although the authors consider these events to be a so-called “CME-induced” storm, rather than a “sheath-induced” storm; (iv) ignoring the compression regions before the fast CME in the case when there is no interplanetary shock (IS) in front of the compression region (“sheath without IS” or the so-called “lost driver”), although this type of driver generates about 10% of moderate and large magnetic storms. Possible ways of solving this problem are discussed.