scholarly journals Testing Probability Distributions Underlying Aggregated Data

Author(s):  
Clément Canonne ◽  
Ronitt Rubinfeld
1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 500-509
Author(s):  
Hannah G. Bosley ◽  
Devon B. Sandel ◽  
Aaron J. Fisher

Abstract. Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is associated with worry and emotion regulation difficulties. The contrast-avoidance model suggests that individuals with GAD use worry to regulate emotion: by worrying, they maintain a constant state of negative affect (NA), avoiding a feared sudden shift into NA. We tested an extension of this model to positive affect (PA). During a week-long ecological momentary assessment (EMA) period, 96 undergraduates with a GAD analog provided four daily measurements of worry, dampening (i.e., PA suppression), and PA. We hypothesized a time-lagged mediation relationship in which higher worry predicts later dampening, and dampening predicts subsequently lower PA. A lag-2 structural equation model was fit to the group-aggregated data and to each individual time-series to test this hypothesis. Although worry and PA were negatively correlated in 87 participants, our model was not supported at the nomothetic level. However, idiographically, our model was well-fit for about a third (38.5%) of participants. We then used automatic search as an idiographic exploratory procedure to detect other time-lagged relationships between these constructs. While 46 individuals exhibited some cross-lagged relationships, no clear pattern emerged across participants. An alternative hypothesis about the speed of the relationship between variables is discussed using contemporaneous correlations of worry, dampening, and PA. Findings suggest heterogeneity in the function of worry as a regulatory strategy, and the importance of temporal scale for detection of time-lagged effects.


Author(s):  
Dace Zavadska ◽  
Zane Odzelevica

Aggregated data on TBE cases in Latvia are available from 1955, but serological testing for TBE began in the 1970’s.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 10501-1-10501-9
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Tyler

Abstract For the visual world in which we operate, the core issue is to conceptualize how its three-dimensional structure is encoded through the neural computation of multiple depth cues and their integration to a unitary depth structure. One approach to this issue is the full Bayesian model of scene understanding, but this is shown to require selection from the implausibly large number of possible scenes. An alternative approach is to propagate the implied depth structure solution for the scene through the “belief propagation” algorithm on general probability distributions. However, a more efficient model of local slant propagation is developed as an alternative.The overall depth percept must be derived from the combination of all available depth cues, but a simple linear summation rule across, say, a dozen different depth cues, would massively overestimate the perceived depth in the scene in cases where each cue alone provides a close-to-veridical depth estimate. On the other hand, a Bayesian averaging or “modified weak fusion” model for depth cue combination does not provide for the observed enhancement of perceived depth from weak depth cues. Thus, the current models do not account for the empirical properties of perceived depth from multiple depth cues.The present analysis shows that these problems can be addressed by an asymptotic, or hyperbolic Minkowski, approach to cue combination. With appropriate parameters, this first-order rule gives strong summation for a few depth cues, but the effect of an increasing number of cues beyond that remains too weak to account for the available degree of perceived depth magnitude. Finally, an accelerated asymptotic rule is proposed to match the empirical strength of perceived depth as measured, with appropriate behavior for any number of depth cues.


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