Image: A Tool for Long Term Global Greenhouse Policy Analysis

Author(s):  
R. J. Swart ◽  
J. Rotmans
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
pp. 293-316
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding

This last chapter deals with the toolbox that central banks use to design and implement their monetary policy strategy. Central banks develop various types of model, both for forecasting and for policy analysis. The chapter discusses the main characteristics of the models used, their strengths and limitations. It assesses how dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are used for monetary policy analysis. Examples are provided on how they contribute to explore fundamental, long-term policy issues specific to LFDCs. The chapter also discusses the contribution of small semi-structural models which, though less strongly theory grounded than DSGE models, can be brought closer to the available data and are therefore possibly better suited to the context of LFDCs. Attention is also drawn to the key role of judgement as the indispensable complement, in monetary policy decision-making, to model-based policy analysis.


2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft

Since 1990, negotiated settlements have become the preferred means for settling civil wars. Historically, however, these types of settlements have proven largely ineffective: civil wars ended by negotiated settlement are more likely to recur than those ending in victory by one side or the other. A theoretical and statistical analysis of how civil wars end reveals that the type of ending influences the prospects for longer-term outcomes. An examination of all civil war endings since 1940 finds that rebel victories are more likely to secure the peace than are negotiated settlements. A statistical analysis of civil wars from 1940 to 2002 and the case of Uganda illustrate why rebel victories result in more stable outcomes. Expanding scholarly and policy analysis of civil war termination types beyond the current default of negotiated settlement to include victories provides a much larger set of cases and variables to draw upon to enhance understanding of the conditions most likely to support long-term stability, democracy, and prosperity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. e0111
Author(s):  
Ilona Rac ◽  
Karmen Erjavec ◽  
Emil Erjavec

Aim of study: The paper explores whether the legislative proposal for the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2021 and the novelty of comprehensive strategic planning at Member State (MS) level can bring about a greener, more multifunctional policy paradigm. While existing research has explored long-term policy change over the entire decision-making process, this study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of conducting policy analysis at the inception of the legislative procedure.Area of study: The study applies to the European Union.Material and methods: The research employs a qualitative method of policy analysis, using a combination of three theoretical frameworks – social learning, path dependency and intergovernmentalism. Extensive document analysis and in-depth interviews were applied to evaluate the proposed reform and gauge the responses of key interest groups.Main results: The proposal holds potential for a substantial overall greening of the policy but will be strongly dependent on implementation at the MS level; the institutional framework provides space for increased environmental ambition, but does not guarantee it, as the proposed safeguards are too weak.Research highlights: More accountability is required during the formulation and implementation of Strategic Plans. Due to strong elements of path dependency and intergovernmentalism, an overall paradigm shift at EU level is unlikely. Strengthening the role of MSs is weakening the commonality of the policy that guarantees at least minimal environmental standards.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
PATRICK BROWN ◽  
RUBÉN FLORES ◽  
ANDY ALASZEWSKI

AbstractThe emergence of and reaction to policy scandals has been usefully studied through comparative case studies. Far less attention has been devoted, however, to the study of such scandals in long-term historical context. With the aim of illuminating longer-term social processes which shape the likelihood that (health)care scandals emerge, we delineate three areas where such changes are visible: a) changing formats of social relations and emotions within and around care provision, and thereby understandings of and demands for compassionate care; b) heightened organisational and political sensitivity to failings; and c) changes in media reporting on healthcare failings, as well as in policy-makers’ responsiveness to and manipulation of media. We consider the 2013 Mid Staffordshire scandal in the English National Health Service and the extant policy literature on this scandal to help illuminate the added analytical value of our long-term approach. In the final section we explore the interconnection of the three processes and how longer-term approaches open up new vistas for policy analysis.


Author(s):  
GERALD KAUFMAN

The National Prison Overcrowding Project is operated by the Center for Effective Public Policy. The project took shape in 1981, growing out of the desire of the National Institute of Corrections and the Edna McConnell Clark Foundation to incorporate a broad systemic view in their efforts to control overcrowding. The Center has worked with Michigan, Colorado, South Carolina, and Oregon. In each of these states a group of significant and diverse policymakers now exists whose members understand how their criminal justice system works and take responsibility for changing it. In its work with the states, the Center facilitates a process aimed at achieving long-term, systemic change rather than simply quick-fix solutions. The focus is the state policy group, composed of policymakers from all three branches of government as well as high-ranking officials from criminal justice agencies, local law enforcement, and private citizens. National staff from the Center work with state project staff to take the policy group through a series of steps designed to produce problem definition and analysis, the information required for the analysis, the selection of policy options, and the implementation and monitoring of the options. Because of the value-laden as well as technical nature of the subject matter, the participation of all members in this policy analysis is critical.


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