Armed Group Transition from Rebel to Government

Governments and political parties with an armed history are not unusual, yet how these groups function during and after the transition from conflict has largely been ignored by the existing literature. Many former armed groups have assumed power in a variety of contexts. Whilst this process is often associated with brokered peace agreements that encourage former combatants to transform into political parties, mobilise voters, and ultimately stand for elections, this is not always the case. What is less clearly understood is how war termination by insurgent victory shapes patterns of post-war politics. This rapid literature review collates available evidence of transitions made by armed groups to government. The literature collated presents a mixed picture, with transitions mediated by an array of contextual factors that are location and group specific. Case studies are drawn from a range of contexts where armed groups have assumed some influence over government (these include those via negotiated settlement, victory and in contexts of ongoing protracted conflict). The review provides a series of readings and case studies that are of use in understanding how armed groups may transition in “post-conflict” settings.

PAK-AFGHAN TIES A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have existed for a long time and can be traced back to five key factors: security interest considerations, cross-border ties and connectivity, geopolitical dynamics, national sovereignty concerns, and regional and international relations. These forces will have an influence on the long-term stability prospects in Afghanistan and the surrounding area if they work together. A tight eye will be kept on the battlefield, given the possibility of escalation following the withdrawal of the US and foreign forces. As the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan deteriorates, it is possible that any remaining hopes for a negotiated settlement would be jeopardised. Once the fighting has been brought to a halt or a new administration has been established, bilateral relations will have an influence on the security, political, and economic dynamics of the region throughout the medium to long term. Having a strong relationship with Pakistan can help to promote stability and progress. However, because of the hatred on both sides, which has been heightened by the conflict, the inverse consequence is more likely. The most promising path forward for Afghanistan and Pakistan in terms of expanding their cross-border connections for the benefit of regional peace and the well-being of their populations is to acknowledge and attempt to resolve one another's security and sovereignty concerns in a peaceful and constructive manner through dialogue.

Finland in World War II

The Soviet invasion of Finland began on 30 November 1939. For a long time, Russian historiography referred to the ensuing Winter War (1939–1940) as a border clash, a sort of dress rehearsal for the Great Patriotic War. The war between a great power with unlimited manpower and material resources and its small Nordic neighbor was fought under severe Arctic weather conditions for which, unlike the Finns, the Red Army was badly prepared. The Finnish resistance lasted for 105 days until 13 March 1940. Partly owing to the changes in the international situation the war ended in a negotiated settlement, the Moscow Peace Treaty, and the Soviet Union annexed one tenth of Finnish territory. Both belligerents suffered heavy losses. Western nations had offered sympathy and military assistance to the Finns during the war but after Germany occupied a large portion of Northern Europe, Finland was practically cut off. Thus the fifteen-month period of Interim Peace (1940–1941) saw a change in Finnish foreign policy orientation toward Germany. In the Winter War Finland, a nation with a population of less than 4 million, was fighting almost alone against the Soviet Union of 170 million inhabitants, but in June 1941 the much stronger Finnish Army joined the German-led Operation Barbarossa to reclaim the lost areas. Finland was aligned with the Germans but was not formally an Axis member. Yet the country was a signatory of the Anti-Comintern Pact. The German troops were primarily stationed in northern Finland. The Finnish Army advanced deep into the Soviet territory in the Continuation War (1941–1944). The offensive was followed by two and a half years of stationary war. In June 1944 the Soviet Union started its major strategic offensive to occupy all of Finland. In the battles fought during that summer the Finnish Army fell back to near the 1940 borders where it managed to stop the Soviet onslaught. The Soviets no longer demanded unconditional surrender, and Finland avoided occupation for the second time. However, the armistice agreement of September 1944 stipulated that the Finns should push the German forces from Finnish territory into Norway. This marked the beginning of the Lapland War (1944–1945) that lasted until April 1945. The fate of Finland was at stake twice, in 1940 and 1944. Yet the country was able to remain independent and a democratic republic.

Nationalism, Liberation, and Decolonization in Angola

Angolan independence was achieved on November 11, 1975, after a 14-year-long war. The war was the result of three overlapping dynamics. The first was Portugal’s refusal to consider the possibility of a negotiated settlement for the independence of its colonies in Africa. Under the dictatorial regime of António Salazar, Portugal had become extremely dependent on its colonies, both economically and politically, and was therefore, by the late 1950s, bent on maintaining its colonial empire. The second was the development of nationalist feelings among Angolan elites, which eventually materialized in the late 1950s to early 1960s in two—and, as of 1966, three—competing nationalist movements. The third constituted a series of popular grievances within sectors of the Angolan population, especially landless farmers and plantation workers in the north, against their growing marginalization and impoverishment due to exploitative colonial policies. This eventually led to three uncoordinated revolts in January, February, and March 1961 that marked the beginning of the war of independence. The division of Angolan nationalism into three competing movements—the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA), the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), and the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA)—was shaped by Angola’s long history of violent integration into Portugal’s colonial empire. The 20th-century Portuguese colonial state in Angola relied on the exploitation of the so-called native workforce through a vast system of forced labor and on taxation. It was also exclusionary and discriminatory, leaving very few avenues for upward social mobility for Angolan “natives.” It was therefore mostly at the margins of the colonial world that such mobility was possible, especially within Christian missions. The integration of these Angolan elite groups into the colonial world, or their exclusion, followed different paths according to local contexts and histories. As a result, the different lived experiences of the social groups that formed the backbone of the nationalist movement made it exceedingly difficult for them to agree on a common vision for independent Angola. This, together with the uncompromising thirst for power of the leadership of the three movements and Cold War logics, contributed to the civil war that engulfed the country at independence and lasted until 2002.

MEDIATION – CURRENT STATE OF USE IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Mediation is a flexible, non-binding dispute resolution method in which a neutral (impartial) third party (mediator) helps two or more disputes to reach a voluntary, negotiated settlement of their disputes. Mediation, emerging strongly as an alternative method of dispute resolution (with the help of neutral third party), has made litigation today not to be treated as the only option for dispute resolution between individuals and businesses. As a means for resolving disputes it has found application especially in business, labor, family, insurance, consumer and construction disputes. The cost, speed and expertise of resolving disputes are some of the key factors that attract individuals, businesses, organizations but also state bodies and institutions to support and promote mediation in this era of globalization and life and activity exposed to the dynamics of contemporary developments. Added to this, however, is the acceptance in the vast majority of cases of dispute resolution reached by both parties to the dispute, but also the privacy and confidentiality of the resolution of their case. Despite the fact that mediation internationally has already been seriously established in the area of dispute resolution, in the Republic of North Macedonia, the legal framework and implementation in practice is at the forefront. For this reason, in addition to the empirical, descriptive and normative treatment, the author through the methods of analysis, synthesis and statistical method processes the official results of the Ministry of Justice to give a clear picture of the trends of the use of mediation in dispute resolution over a period of 5 years (2016-2020) in the Republic of North Macedonia.

Sam C. Nolutshungu: Race, Reform, Resistance and the Black Consciousness Movement

This paper excavates and historically contextualizes the political theory of a largely neglected thinker within South African black intellectual history, Sam C. Nolutshungu. It seeks to rectify the current imbalance in South African intellectual history which largely neglects or effaces the contribution of black thinkers in the colonial or Apartheid period notwithstanding significant black contributions in theorizing racial submission, domination, reform and popular resistance in the context of state oppression. In this paper I argue that two such areas of inquiry are present in Nolutshungu’s overall position on political reform. The first is with regards to his intervention in the race- class debates which dominated political and intellectual discussions during the late Apartheid period. Here, Nolutshungu, argues that political domination could not be reformed with simple concessions as a result of its racially exclusionary nature. Thus Nolutshungu argued that race rather than class was the fundamental source of domination. The second is the theoretical evaluation of the social and political significance of the Black Consciousness Movement as an important symbol of resistance and racial solidarity. The link between these two aspects of his thought, I argue are not insignificant and should be carefully considered. Nolutshungu’s valuable analysis on the route to political reform is strengthened by his evaluation of the role of the Black Consciousness Movement, which for Nolutshungu was an instance of how resistance was mobilized along racial rather than class lines. Moreover, the Black Consciousness Movement not only prioritized the question of race as a primary factor in its mode of resistance but served to illustrate how and why meaningful change in South Africa was contingent on the abolition of racial oppression and the overturning of the institutions of Apartheid. Finally, I argue that there is a contextual urgency in undertaking projects that seek to establish the importance of black intellectual ideas and reclaiming these ideas in order to give content and meaning to contested contemporary debates on justice, legitimacy, liberty, equality and land rights in South Africa. While the discourse of the negotiated settlement and reconciliation sparks intense debate often resulting in greater forms of racial polarisation, historical rumination and reflection offers a powerful and enduring opportunity for collective inquiry.

Bargaining in intrastate conflicts: The shifting role of ceasefires

Research shows that conflict parties engage in ceasefires in pursuit of a variety of objectives, some of which reduce while others fuel violent conflict. This article provides a framework that links these objectives to a larger process. Building on bargaining theory, three distinct bargaining contexts are specified for intrastate conflicts. In the Diminishing Opponent context, leaders believe that a military solution yields a better outcome than a political settlement. In the Forcing Concessions context, they recognize the benefit of conflict settlement, but expectations about a mutually acceptable agreement still widely diverge. In the Enabling Agreement context, expectations converge, and leaders seek to pursue settlement without incurring further costs. In line with these readings, conflict party leaders adapt their strategic goal, from seeking to set up a military advantage, to boosting their bargaining power, to increasing the chances of a negotiated settlement. They may use ceasefires in the pursuit of any of these three goals, shifting the function of a ceasefire as they gain a better understanding of bargaining dynamics. A comparison of violence and ceasefire patterns in six contemporary peace processes and a congruence test conducted on the 2012–16 peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the guerilla organization FARC offer support for the theoretical framework. The findings highlight the important, and shifting, role ceasefires play in the transition from war to negotiated peace.

Concessions for Concession’s Sake: Injustice, Indignation, and the Construction of Intractable Conflict in Israel–Palestine

In intractable conflicts, what factors lead populations to accept negotiated outcomes? To examine these issues, we conduct a survey experiment on a representative sample of the Jewish Israeli population and a companion experiment on a representative sample of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. We find that holding the negotiated settlement outcome constant, approval of the settlement is strongly influenced by whether it is framed as a negotiating defeat for one side—if and only if respondents are primed to be indignant—and that these effects are strongly mediated by perceptions of the fairness of the settlement outcome. Moral indignation produces a desire for concessions for concession’s sake. Such conflicts over political framing violate assumptions of the rationalist literature on conflict processes and suggest important new directions for conflict theorizing.

Deniable Contact

Despite the importance of secret negotiations during the Northern Ireland conflict there is no full-length study of the use of back-channels in repeated efforts to end the ‘Troubles’. This book provides a textured account that extends our understanding of the distinctive dynamics of negotiations conducted in secret and the conditions conducive to the negotiated settlement of conflict. It disrupts and challenges some conventional notions about the conflict in Northern Ireland, offering a fresh analysis of the political dynamics and the intra-party struggles that sustained violent conflict and prevented settlement for so long. It draws on theories of negotiation and mediation to understand why efforts to end the conflict through back-channel negotiations repeatedly failed before finally succeeding in the 1990s. It challenges the view that the conflict persisted because of irreconcilable political ideologies and argues that the parties to conflict were much more open to compromise than the often-intransigent public rhetoric suggested. The analysis is founded on a rich store of historical evidence, including the private papers of key Irish republican leaders and British politicians, recently released papers from national archives in Dublin and London, and the papers of Brendan Duddy, the intermediary who acted as the primary contact between the IRA and the British government during key phases of engagement, including papers that have not yet been made publicly available. This documentary evidence, combined with original interviews with politicians, mediators, civil servants, and republicans, allows a vivid picture to emerge of the complex maneuvering at this intersection.