Some simple air pollution and urban-regional growth models

1972 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Isard ◽  
Panagis Liossatos
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth

SOME SIMPLE AIR POLLUTION AND URBAN-REGIONAL GROWTH MODELS

2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Walter Isard ◽  
Panagis Liossatos
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth

Regional growth models for rural areas development

1962 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilbur R. Maki ◽  
Yien-I Tu
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth

scholarly journals Flatten the Curve!

REGION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-83
Author(s):  
Thomas Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Child Day Care ◽  
Voluntary Behavior ◽  
Before School ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. Being one of the most affected countries in Europe, in March 2020, Germany established several nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child day care facilities (March 16-18, 2020) as well as a full "lockdown" with forced social distancing and closures of "nonessential" services (March 23, 2020). The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had an impact on the declared aim of "flattening the curve", referring to the epidemic curve of new infections. This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on daily infections (estimated from reported cases), aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection where infection rates begin to decrease and the curve flattens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the "lockdown" was established. In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the virus emerged. Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew show no significant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. Furthermore, mortality varies strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people belonging to the "risk group", especially residents of retirement homes. The decline of infections in absence of the "lockdown" measures could be explained by 1) earlier governmental interventions (e.g., cancellation of mass events, domestic quarantine), 2) voluntary behavior changes (e.g., physical distancing and hygiene), 3) seasonality of the virus, and 4) a rising but undiscovered level of immunity within the population. The results raise the question whether formal contact bans and curfews really contribute to curve flattening within a pandemic.

scholarly journals Flatten the Curve! Modeling SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Growth in Germany at the County Level

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Child Day Care ◽  
Curve Modeling ◽  
Before School ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSince the emerging of the “novel coronavirus” SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. Being one of the most affected countries in Europe, in March 2020, Germany established several nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child day care facilities (March 16-18, 2020) as well as a full “lockdown” with forced social distancing and closures of “nonessential” services (March 23, 2020). The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had an impact on the declared aim of “flattening the curve”, referring to the epidemic curve of new infections. This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on daily infections (estimated from reported cases), aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection where infection rates begin to decrease and the curve flattens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the “lockdown” was established. In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the virus emerged. Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew show no significant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. Furthermore, mortality varies strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people belonging to the “risk group”, especially residents of retirement homes. The results raise the question whether social ban measures and curfews really contribute to curve flattening within a pandemic.

scholarly journals Towards Australian Regional Turnaround: Insights into Sustainably Accommodating Post-Pandemic Urban Growth in Regional Towns and Cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10492
Author(s):  
Mirko Guaralda ◽  
Greg Hearn ◽  
Marcus Foth ◽  
Tan Yigitcanlar ◽  
Severine Mayere ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Local Planning ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Regional Community ◽  
Regional Australia

The COVID-19 pandemic has made many urban policymakers, planners, and scholars, all around the globe, rethink conventional, neoliberal growth strategies of cities. The trend of rapid urbanization, particularly around capital cities, has been questioned, and alternative growth models and locations have been the subjects of countless discussions. This is particularly the case for the Australian context: The COVID-19 pandemic heightened the debates in urban circles on post-pandemic urban growth strategies and boosting the growth of towns and cities across regional Australia is a popular alternative strategy. While some scholars argue that regional Australia poses an invaluable opportunity for post-pandemic growth by ‘taking off the pressure from the capital cities’; others warn us about the risks of growing regional towns and cities without carefully designed national, regional, and local planning, design, and development strategies. Superimposing planning and development policies meant for metropolitan cities could simply result in transferring the ills of capital cities to regions and exacerbate unsustainable development and heightened socioeconomic inequalities. This opinion piece, by keeping both of these perspectives in mind, explores approaches to regional community and economic development of Australia’s towns and cities, along with identifying sustainable urban growth locations in the post-pandemic era. It also offers new insights that could help re-shape the policy debate on regional growth and development.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document