Forecasting without historical data: Bayesian probability models utilizing expert opinions

1995 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 359-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey F. Driver ◽  
Farrokh Alemi
Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffael Krismer

Contemporary non-representationalist interpretations of the quantum state (especially QBism, neo-Copenhagen views, and the relational interpretation) maintain that quantum states codify observer-relative information. This paper provides an extensive defense of such views, while emphasizing the advantages of, specifically, the relational interpretation. The argument proceeds in three steps: (1) I present a classical example (which exemplifies the spirit of the relational interpretation) to illustrate why some of the most persistent charges against non-representationalism have been misguided. (2) The special focus is placed on dynamical evolution. Non-representationalists often motivate their views by interpreting the collapse postulate as the quantum mechanical analogue of Bayesian probability updating. However, it is not clear whether one can also interpret the Schrödinger equation as a form of rational opinion updating. Using results due to Hughes & van Fraassen as well as Lisi, I argue that unitary evolution has a counterpart in classical probability theory: in both cases (quantum and classical) probabilities relative to a non-participating observer evolve according to an entropy maximizing principle (and can be interpreted as rational opinion updating). (3) Relying on a thought-experiment by Frauchiger and Renner, I discuss the differences between quantum and classical probability models.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kata Vöröskői ◽  
Péter Földesi ◽  
László T. Kóczy ◽  
Péter Böröcz

In modern logistics, companies and packaging engineers have to make decisions to find the optimal sustainable product-packaging system with adequate protection. The decision most often involves a decision option between disposable (single-trip) and reusable (returnable) packaging solutions. In practice, in most cases, this decision is based on historical data and traditions and only considers the packaging material and investment expenses. Although cost is an important factor, it is not the only one needed to find the optimal solution. Several other alternative factors further complicate the situation. Traditional (two-valued) logic is not able to model this problem. This study presents a novel technique to help the decision-making process using the application of fuzzy approach. The authors used three different fuzzy signatures connected by fuzzy rules to model the packaging decisions, which were based on logistics expert opinions. Practical examples are presented concerning both customer packaging (primary packaging) and industrial transport packaging (secondary packaging) as well.


2014 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph G. Ibrahim ◽  
Ming-Hui Chen ◽  
Mani Lakshminarayanan ◽  
Guanghan F. Liu ◽  
Joseph F. Heyse

2018 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 00061
Author(s):  
Przemysław Kubica ◽  
Tomasz Wdowiak

The variety of architectural solutions of buildings and the multitude of purposes to which they will be used enforces the use of solutions not directly provided for in the law. To ensure an adequate level of safety are used replacement and substitution conditions. The currently functioning system of expert opinions is based on expert knowledge, which is often difficult to assess and gives divergent solutions for similar cases. Development of an objective and repeatable method of matching optimal solutions to the threat of fire is an area of current research in the field of fire safety engineering. The subject of the work covered the process of determining the scenarios causing the greatest threat while estimating the probability of its appearance. Using the multisimulation method - multiple simulations for a given object with determine variables is established the probability distribution of specific negative events. Variables are drawn based on distributions developed with statistical methods from historical data. The method is based on the known input data - British Standards and with keeping a sufficiently large number of draws gives reproducible results - probability distributions. In addition, the model can be expanded with new variables and adapted to atypical issues.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Mark Ford ◽  
Alexander Silvis ◽  
Jane L. Rodrigue ◽  
Andrew B. Kniowski ◽  
Joshua B. Johnson

Abstract The listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as federally threatened under the Endangered Species Act following severe population declines from white-nose syndrome presents considerable challenges to natural resource managers. Because the northern long-eared bat is a forest habitat generalist, development of effective conservation measures will depend on appropriate understanding of its habitat relationships at individual locations. However, severely reduced population sizes make gathering data for such models difficult. As a result, historical data may be essential in development of habitat models. To date, there has been little evaluation of how effective historical bat presence data, such as data derived from mist-net captures, acoustic detection, and day-roost locations, may be in developing habitat models, nor is it clear how models created using different data sources may differ. We explored this issue by creating presence probability models for the northern long-eared bat on the Fernow Experimental Forest in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia using a historical, presence-only data set. Each presence data type produced outputs that were dissimilar but that still corresponded with known traits of the northern long-eared bat or are easily explained in the context of the particular data collection protocol. However, our results also highlight potential limitations of individual data types. For example, models from mist-net capture data only showed high probability of presence along the dendritic network of riparian areas, an obvious artifact of sampling methodology. Development of ecological niche and presence models for northern long-eared bat populations could be highly valuable for resource managers going forward with this species. We caution, however, that efforts to create such models should consider the substantial limitations of models derived from historical data, and address model assumptions.


Author(s):  
Yu-Cheol Lee ◽  
Wonpil Yu ◽  
Jong-Hwan Lim ◽  
Wan Kyun Chung ◽  
Dong-Woo Cho

This paper presents a method for building a probability grid map for autonomous mobile robots with ultrasonic sensors using a footprint association filter (FAF). The method is based on evaluating the possibility that the acquired sonar data are all reflected by the same object. The FAF is able to associate data points with each other. Data affected by specular reflection are not likely to be associated with the same object, so they are excluded from the data cluster by the FAF, thereby improving the reliability of the data used for the probability grid map. Since the corrupted data are not used to update the probability map, it is possible to build a good quality grid map even in a specular environment. The FAF was applied to the Bayesian probability models, which are typical models used to build grid maps, to verify its effectiveness. Experimental results were also obtained using a mobile robot in a ubiquitous home environment.


1990 ◽  
Vol 54 (10) ◽  
pp. 612-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
CA Palmer ◽  
J Dwyer ◽  
RE Clark
Keyword(s):  

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