The impact of oil price shocks and exchange rate changes on import demand elasticities

1992 ◽  
Vol 128 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Zietz
Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1695
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Mubariz Mammadli ◽  
Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.


Author(s):  
Sani Bawa ◽  
Ismaila S. Abdullahi ◽  
Danlami Tukur ◽  
Sani I. Barda ◽  
Yusuf J. Adams

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation in Nigeria. A NonLinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was applied on quarterly data spanning 1999Q1 to 2018Q4. Results showed that oil price increases led to increase in headline, core and food measures of inflation in Nigeria. However, a decline in oil price resulted in a decline in the marginal cost of production and culminated in moderation of domestic inflation. Furthermore, negative oil price shocks led to higher inflation in Nigeria when exchange rate is dropped from the models, indicating that exchange rate absorbed the impact of oil price declines earlier, as lower oil prices culminated in lower external reserve, depreciation of the naira and ultimately higher inflationary pressures. Also, core inflation tends to respond more to oil price increases than food inflation. These results were robust to changes in econometric specifications and sample period. The study recommends that monetary policy actions of the Central Bank of Nigeria should focus on taming core inflation in periods of substantial oil price increases while strengthening its efforts at ensuring domestic sustainability in food production through its agricultural intervention programmes to further minimize the impact of international oil prices on food inflation. Similarly, the fiscal authorities should ensure that the fiscal stance is not excessively procyclical in periods of rising oil prices.


2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdurrahman Nazif Catik ◽  
Mehmet Karacuka ◽  
A. Ozlem Onder

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Cepni ◽  
Selcuk Gul ◽  
Brian M. Lucey ◽  
Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

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