Revisiting the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Macroeconomic Performance: An International Perspective

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifan Shen ◽  
Tilak Abeysinghe
Keyword(s):  
International Perspective ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Global Commodity and Oil Price Movements, Macroeconomic Performance and Challenges for an Emerging Economy: The Indian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 650-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Tripati Rao ◽  
Saurabh Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Private Credit ◽  
The Impact

Commodity and oil price fluctuations have significant bearing on domestic macroeconomic performance and macroeconomic policymaking of an emerging economy. The article explores the impact of non-energy commodity and oil price fluctuations on output, inflation and real exchange rate (RER) in India; and commodity and oil constituting sizeable imports. The empirical analysis carried out through vector error correction model (VECM) for the post-liberalization period 1991–2014 clearly points out that commodity and oil price shocks have a significant impact on the variation in output and prices accounting for RER adjustment and the role of a developed financial market (private credit). The RER adjusts to commodity and oil price shocks, accounting for foreign exchange reserves and financial markets (private credit). The impulse response functions indicate that one standard deviation shock in commodity and oil price persists for three to eight quarters over domestic prices and output. While these results point to lessening of commodity and oil imports through a series of medium and long-term structural-cum-policy reform measures, in the immediate, they also lend a role of intervention by monetary authority (central bank) in pursuit of inflation targeting. Conjointly, pursuance of countercyclical fiscal policy to stabilize domestic output and prices in short run are called for.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Sovereign Yield Curve

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Cepni ◽  
Selcuk Gul ◽  
Brian M. Lucey ◽  
Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1695
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Mubariz Mammadli ◽  
Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET

2009 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 1267-1287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian ◽  
Cheolbeom Park
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Household Consumption?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Nabila Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Price Change ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Consumption Decisions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The paper addresses whether international oil price change has any impact on consumer spending. The study is conducted using Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations, which have been chosen deliberately based on their economic importance and classifying each into oil importing and exporting countries: Canada, Germany, the UK and the USA. Applying the empirical methodology of the vector autoregressive model, we find evidence that international oil price shocks have a significant impact on consumer spending. The analysis is performed with two sets of specification for oil (‘Oil price change’ and ‘Net oil price increase’) and the main tools used for diagnosis are forecast error variance decomposition and impulse–response functions.The results are strongly significant for Canada and the USA. The results for Germany and the UK are mixed, which leads us to an inconclusive decision about the impact on these countries. However, in general, our empirical work supports the evidence that oil prices have some predictive power in influencing consumption decisions across oil-importing and oil-exporting countries.

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