Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-286
Author(s):  
Gabe Jacob de Bondt ◽  
Arne Gieseck ◽  
Zivile Zekaite
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Wealth Effects

ECB sovereign QE could support inflation trends

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance The programme expands existing purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds with large-scale buying of bonds issued by euro-area governments, agencies and European institutions. Purchases will amount to a combined total of 60 billion euros (69 billion dollars) per month, starting in March. They will continue until at least September 2016 -- or until there is progress towards the central bank's medium-term inflation goal. Impacts The larger than expected size of the programme will be achievable thanks to partial risk sharing among national central banks. Wealth effects will be smaller than in the United States and United Kingdom, as euro-area capital markets are less deep. The QE programme will amount to 12% of euro-area GDP, while the US programme was larger, at 25% of GDP.

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Near Term

Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.

scholarly journals Disaggregate Income and Wealth Effects in the Largest Euro Area Countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabe de Bondt ◽  
Arne Gieseck ◽  
Pablo Herrero ◽  
Zivile Zekaite
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Wealth Effects

AGING AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN A SMALL EURO AREA ECONOMY

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1673-1705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Castro ◽  
José R. Maria ◽  
Ricardo Mourinho Félix ◽  
Cláudia Rodrigues Braz
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
External Imbalances ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Effects Of Aging

Economic and social impacts of aging trends will be of the utmost importance in the near future. We embed a stylized pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system into a DSGE model with overlapping generations to assess the macroeconomic effects of aging in a small Euro Area economy. The simulations suggest large negative impacts on GDP and private consumption. In addition, external imbalances may widen significantly under the PAYG system. All results are conditional on the policy options addressing debt sustainability–the impacts tend to be very large if the government finances the aging with higher social security premia instead of lower replacement ratios. Sensitivity analysis reveals that GDP and private consumption impacts are less robust than those on external imbalances. Results also imply that supranational policy coordination may be crucial if the objective is to preserve economic and financial stability in the Euro Area.

Euro Area Income and Wealth Effects: Aggregation Issues

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabe Bondt ◽  
Arne Gieseck ◽  
Pablo Herrero ◽  
Zivile Zekaite
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Wealth Effects
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