Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

Interest Rate Deregulation and Performance of Deposit Money Banks: Time Series Evidence from Nigeria

This work investigated the relationship between interest rate deregulation and performance of Nigerian deposit money banks for the period 1996-2018. Interest rate deregulation was disaggregated into prime lending rate, maximum lending rate, 3-months deposit rate and over 12-months deposit rate while return on assets (ROA) was used as a proxy for deposit money banks’ performance. Data on the above variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2018 edition) and the World Bank data base. The data were tested for stationarity using the Dickey-Fuller (D-F) test, for long-run relationship using Bound’s co-integration test, and for reliability of ARDL results using serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and normality tests. The results of the tests revealed that all the variables were integrated of order zero or one, and that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Consequently, ARDL model for parameter estimation process revealed that only prime lending rate was positively related to ROA of banks while none of the explanatory variables was statistically significant. The researcher then submitted that there is no significant relationship between interest rate deregulation and the performance of Nigerian deposit money banks for the period considered. Hence, deposit money banks should strive to mobilize adequate savings from surplus spenders by offering them deposit rates that are capable of inducing savers to increase their savings and boost the availability of loanable funds. Also, there is urgent need to restructure the Nigerian financial system whereby policies by the monetary authorities will achieve pre-determined goals. In essence, to make interest rate policies meaningful, there is need to curtail financial transactions that escape the banking system.

Lower reversal limit of the European Central Bank deposit rate and sustainability of traditional banking business model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut further this rate without causing persistent yield curve inversions (YCI), i.e. lower yields for longer terms. It addresses the sustainability of the traditional banking and shows that inverted yield curves would require changing the banking-as-usual model to the government-guaranteed long-term-borrowing coupled with short-term-lending. This research poses the question of whether the banking sector should become a public utility. Design/methodology/approach The future scenarios of negative interest rate (NIR) behavior are modeled seeking to increase the understanding of NIR environment. Using an event-study design, empirical analyses of the ECB deposit rate cuts on the Euro Over-Night Index Average rates is performed at different maturities. Findings This study finds that, starting from the lower limit of 80 basis points below zero, the ECB deposit rate is likely to result in complete YCIs. Social implications This paper evidences that moving rates into a more negative territory is likely to be completely counterproductive for banking industry, implying that banking at such conditions would become heavily dependent on governmental support. The results shed light on the interdependence of the banking business, financial monetary policy and welfare of the society, providing policymakers with empirically defined milestones for policy implementations. Originality/value This paper clarifies the impact of the ECB deposit rate on the overall shape of yield curves. The novelty of this research resides in investigation of YCI by simulating NIR dynamics.

Dilemma Between Deposit And Lending Rate: Savings-Investment Perspective

The dilemma between deposit and lending rate has created challenges for financial institutions in the course of intermediation. This dilemma also made it difficult for investors to make accurate decisions which has created a lacuna in the financial system. The objective of this study is to investigate the source of the dilemma between deposit and lending rate. The study also examined the impact of deposit and lending rate on saving and investment respectively in Nigeria using the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical result revealed the main cause of the dilemma to be the fluctuation in the deposit and lending rate. The ARDL result shows that the deposit rate has a positive impact on savings while the lending rate has a negative impact on investment in Nigeria. The monetary authority should endeavor to maintain stability of the interest rate due to the significant impact of these rates on saving, investment and economic growth at large.

ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENT OF THE SECTORIAL LENDINGDEPOSIT RATE SPREAD IN FIJI

This study investigates the asymmetric adjustment of the sectorial lending-deposit rate spread in Fiji’s banking industry using monthly data from January 2000 to February 2020. The study uses the threshold autoregressive and the momentum threshold autoregressive models to test for cointegration and to detect asymmetries. The analysis provides evidence of an asymmetric adjustment process in the sectorial lending deposit rate spread among Fijian commercial banks. This finding has important policy implications and provides better understanding of the asymmetric behaviour in Fiji’s banking industry.

Bank Characteristics Effect on Capital Structure: Evidence from PMG and CS-ARDL

The main aim of this paper was to investigate the impact of bank characteristics on capital structure empirically. The study employed a panel data analysis, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) estimators were utilized, for the period spans between the years 2008 and 2018. Both the borrowing (leverage) ratio and equity ratio used in the analysis cover short-term deposits and long-term deposits as a fundamental determinant variable on the capital structure. The main findings confirm that the deposit ratio has a positive relationship with the size of the bank. In other words, big banks use more foreign sources than small banks to use the tax shield advantage. At the same time, a percentage increase in bank size and liquidity ratio enhance the bank deposit rate by 0.0068% and 0.479%, respectively, in the long-run, while a percentage change in interest income coverage will reduce the bank deposit rate by 0.004% in the long-run. Meanwhile, the significant causal relationship of growth rate with the bank deposit rate could not be established. In addition, the short-run coefficients of the variables reveal that size, interest coverage, and liquidity have a positive and significant causal relationship with bank deposit rate in the short-run. The findings of the study are in line with the results of capital structure theories, especially the hierarchy theory and balancing theory.