Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunxia Guo ◽  
Yijun Hou ◽  
Peng Qi
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Typhoon Wind

scholarly journals Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunxia Guo ◽  
Yijun Hou ◽  
Peng Qi
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Pressure Profile ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Value Distributions ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Extreme Wind Speed ◽  
Typhoon Wind

Abstract. Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China’s southeast coast. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved, and the improved tracking models are shown to significantly increase the correlation in regression analysis. We also investigate quantitatively the sensitivity of the typhoon wind hazard model. The effects of different typhoon decay models, the simplified and non-simplified typhoon tracking models, different statistical models for the radius to maximum winds (Rmax) and Holland pressure profile parameter (B), and different extreme value distributions on the predicted extreme wind speed of different return periods are all investigated. Comparisons of estimated typhoon wind speeds for 50-year and 100-year return periods under the influence of different factors are presented. The different models of Rmax and B are found to have greatest impact on the prediction of extreme wind speed, followed by the extreme value distributions, typhoon tracking models, and typhoon decay models. This paper constitutes a useful reference for predicting extreme wind speed using the empirical track model.

scholarly journals Joint Modeling of Severe Dust Storm Events in Arid and Hyper Arid Regions Based on Copula Theory: A Case Study in the Yazd Province, Iran

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyebeh Mesbahzadeh ◽  
Maryam Mirakbari ◽  
Mohsen Mohseni Saravi ◽  
Farshad Soleimani Sardoo ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Maximum Wind Speed ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Copula Theory ◽  
Maximum Wind

Natural disasters such as dust storms are random phenomena created by complicated mechanisms involving many parameters. In this study, we used copula theory for bivariate modeling of dust storms. Copula theory is a suitable method for multivariate modeling of natural disasters. We identified 40 severe dust storms, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, during 1982–2017 in Yazd province, central Iran. We used parameters at two spatial vertical levels (near-surface and upper atmosphere) that included surface maximum wind speed, and geopotential height and vertical velocity at 500, 850, and 1000 hPa. We compared two bivariate models based on the pairs of maximum wind speed–geopotential height and maximum wind speed–vertical velocity. We determined the bivariate return period using Student t and Gaussian copulas, which were considered as the most suitable functions for these variables. The results obtained for maximum wind speed–geopotential height indicated that the maximum return period was consistent with the observed frequency of severe dust storms. The bivariate modeling of dust storms based on maximum wind speed and geopotential height better described the conditions of severe dust storms than modeling based on maximum wind speed and vertical velocity. The finding of this study can be useful to improve risk management and mitigate the impacts of severe dust storms.

scholarly journals Development of Site-Specific Wind Hazard Map for Peninsular Malaysia via Spatial Modeling

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saddam Hussein Abo Sabah ◽  
Noram Irwan Ramli ◽  
Taksiah A. Majid ◽  
Shaharudin Shah Zaini
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
The Hill

The commonly used approach to predict and evaluate the wind risk in Peninsular Malaysia is to employ the basic wind speed (Vs) hazard map, which underestimates the real damage due to the limitation of factors considered by the current map. This paper aimed to develop a new wind hazard map for Peninsular Malaysia based on the site wind speed (Vsite) rather than the Vs using the Geographical Information System. The development of the Vsite map considered the effects of the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and the topography conditions that were not taken into consideration by the Malaysian Standard during the development of the Vs map. The statistical analysis proved that the wind hazard in Peninsular Malaysia is directly proportional to the LULC and inversely proportional to the Hill Shape Multiplier. In addition, the results showed that the existing Vs map underrated the wind hazard in Peninsular Malaysia by almost 9.02% to 17.79% compared to the developed Vsite map. Therefore, the use of the newly developed map to evaluate the wind hazards will significantly enhance the assessment, and the new map has the potential to be incorporated into the Malaysian Standard for this purpose.

Impact of ENSO on typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China

2018 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 1717-1731
Author(s):  
Yu Chen ◽  
Zhongdong Duan
Keyword(s):  
Southeast China ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Typhoon Wind

scholarly journals Underwater acoustic sensing applied to estimation of typhoon wind speed

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (23) ◽  
pp. 7398-7412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiang-Chih Chan ◽  
Chi-Fang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Acoustic Sensing ◽  
Underwater Acoustic ◽  
Typhoon Wind

Typhoon wind hazard estimation by full-track simulation with various wind intensity models

2021 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 104792
Author(s):  
Mingfeng Huang ◽  
Qing Wang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Hazard Estimation ◽  
Wind Intensity ◽  
Typhoon Wind ◽  
Track Simulation

scholarly journals Assessing Typhoon Wind Hazard : Development of Typhoon Nomogram

2017 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 121-133
Author(s):  
Shota YAMASAKI ◽  
Hironori FUDEYASU ◽  
Masaya KATO ◽  
Tetsuya TAKEMI ◽  
Yasutomo KIYOHARA
Keyword(s):  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Typhoon Wind
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