The relationship between geopotential height and movement & landfall of tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal region

In this paper a simple relationship is employed to investigate relative impacts on the movement and landfall of tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal region when geopotential height of different troposphere levels is used as an input. Five tropical cyclone during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal region has been selected for the study. The RS/RW data of coastal stations namely Kolkata (Dumdum), Dhaka, Agartala, Bhubaneswar, Visakhapatnam, Machlipatnam, Chennai and Karaikal has been collected for the period of the cyclones under study. The geopotential height of different standard levels has been plotted against the time for the stations for every cyclone. The study suggests that the cyclone moves towards and cross near the station having relatively steeper decrease in geopotential height upto mid tropical level followed by increased in geopotential height.

Inconsistencies in the mean fields of temperature, geopotential height and winds over the Indian aerological network during July-August

The daily aerological data of 23 RS/R W stations for the p~ak monsoon months of July and August 1978, 1979 and 1980 for 25 levels from the surface to the lower stratosphere have been analysed. The standard deviations of the daily values of temperature are found to be about 1 .5 to 2° C in th9 lower troposphere increasing to about twice this value at upper levels. The standard deviations of geopotential heights or isobaric levels range from 15to 30 gpm in the lower troposphere increasing to about 4 times this value at upper levels. The horizontal gradients in the mean fields of temperature and geopotential height between pairs of stations in the network show several inconsistencies which are illustrated with examples. The existence of such inconsistencies in the mean fields for several years has also been found from an examination of CLIMAT -TEMP data of the stations up to 1989. These findings impose limitations on the utilisation of the data in synoptic and climatological studies.

Variability and trends in surface solar spectral ultraviolet irradiance in Italy: on the influence of geopotential height and lower-stratospheric ozone

The short- and long-term variability of the surface spectral solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is investigated across Italy using high-quality ground-based measurements from three locations: Aosta (45.7∘ N, 7.4∘ E, 570 m a.s.l.), Rome (41.9∘ N, 12.5∘ E, 15 75 m a.s.l.), and Lampedusa (35.5∘ N, 12.6∘ E, 50 m a.s.l.). The three sites are characterized by different environmental conditions and represent almost the full latitudinal extent of the Italian territory. Data of two periods were analysed: 2006–2020 (all sites) and 1996–2020 (Rome only). The main objective of this study is to quantify the effect of the geopotential height (GPH) at 250 hPa on total ozone, and spectral irradiance at 307.5 and 324 nm. We first show that monthly anomalies in GPH, total ozone, and spectral irradiances are correlated amongst the three sites, suggesting that Italy is often affected by the same synoptical weather systems. We further find statistically significant anticorrelations between GPH and monthly anomalies in total ozone for all stations and months. Conversely, we identify positive correlations between GPH and monthly anomalies in spectral irradiance at 307.5 nm for most months. The influence of GPH on short-term variability also hold for long-term trends. For example, long-term changes in total ozone over the period 2006–2020 were associated with changes in GPH for all stations. This suggests that observed negative trends in total ozone were mainly driven by changes in lower-stratospheric ozone as upper-stratospheric ozone was increasing over this period. For several months of the year, positive trends in UV irradiance were observed, and we found that these trends were predominantly caused by changes in clouds and/or aerosols instead of total ozone. For the longer period of 1996–2020, a statistically significant annualized decrease in total ozone of ∼ 0.1 % per year was identified for Rome and could subsequently be attributed to decreasing lower-stratospheric ozone. While positive trends in spectral irradiance at 307.5 nm were observed for several months of this extended period, the negative trend in total ozone did not lead to a positive trend in the spectral irradiance at 307.5 nm in the deseasonalized data. Our study provides evidence that dynamical processes taking place in the troposphere lead to significant variability in total ozone and surface solar UV irradiance.

Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Application of Sasaki's numerical variational technique to the analysis of height and wind fields over Indian region

An objective analysis method based on Sasaki's numerical variational analysis technique has been taken up for the analysis of geopotential height and wind over the Indian region. The univariate optimum interpolation (UOI) method is used to generate the initial or input fields. These fields are then adjusted by the variational method. A study of this method over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels is made from 4 to 8 July 1979 and the analyses obtained using this method are compared with the FGGE analyses.

Evolution of Warm Season Intense Rainfall in Yaan Against a Cold-Anomaly Background

This study investigates the rainfall characteristics during intense rainfall over Yaan against a cold-anomaly background, aiming to refine the understanding of different kinds of rainfall events across complex terrain. Hourly rain gauge records, ERA5 reanalysis data and the black body temperature of cloud tops derived from FY-2E were used. The results show that against a cold-anomaly background, the regional rainfall events (RREs) in Yaan exhibit west-to-east propagation, which is different from the north-to-south evolution of warm RREs. The middle and upper troposphere is dominated by a negative geopotential height anomaly corresponding to the cold anomaly. The cyclonic circulation at the higher level associated with the negative geopotential height anomaly bends the high-level jet to the south, forming a divergent zone over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and guiding mid-level systems to move eastward. The cyclonic circulation at the mid-level produces a wind shear zone over the TP, generating anomalous vorticity that continuously moves eastward and develops to influence the rainfall over Yaan. The cold Yaan RREs are closely related to the TP low-pressure systems (both vortex and shearline). The anomalous vorticity over the TP can influence the local vortex over the eastern periphery of the TP at a distance mainly by the horizontal advection of anomalous vorticity by the mean flow and then enhance the local vortex mainly by anomalous convergence when it moves near Yaan.

QUASI-STATIONARY PLANETARY WAVES IN MID-LATITUDE STRATOSPHERE–MESOSPHERE IN WINTER 2011-2020

The 10-year climatology (2011–2020) of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the mid-latitude stratosphere and mesosphere (40–50N, up to 90 km) has been analyzed. Longitude–altitude sections of geopotential height and ozone have been obtained using the Aura MLS satellite data. It is found that stationary wave 1 propagates into the mesosphere from the North American High and Icelandic Low, which are adjacent surface pressure anomalies in the structure of stationary wave 2. Unexpectedly, the strongest pressure anomaly in the Aleutian Low region does not contribute to the stationary wave 1 formation in the mesosphere. The vertical phase transformations of stationary waves in geopotential height and ozone show inconsistencies that should be studied separately.

The Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of Summer Rainfall in Southern China and Its Relationship With the Geopotential Height Anomaly Over the North Atlantic Ocean

Summer precipitation in East Asia has significant quasi-biweekly (10–30-day) oscillation characteristics. By using gauge-based precipitation and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the basic mode of the quasi-biweekly oscillation of summer precipitation in East Asia and the related circulation from 1979 to 2012 were analyzed. It was found that the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its south in China were among the key areas for the 10- to 30-day oscillation of summer precipitation. After selecting typical summer precipitation events with 10- to 30-day oscillation characteristics in key areas and conducting composite analysis, it is found that in the dry (wet) phase of quasi-biweekly precipitation in southern China, it is controlled by quasi-biweekly anticyclone (cyclone) at 500 hPa above the key area. During the evolution of quasi-biweekly precipitation, the ridge of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High is located between 20 and 22°N latitude, and there is no significant variability in the large-scale background circulation. Furthermore, composite analysis of the precursory signal at 500 hPa during quasi-biweekly precipitation in southern China found that there was an obvious quasi-biweekly geopotential height anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean almost 30 days before the peak day of quasi-biweekly precipitation. While the quasi-biweekly geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa in the North Atlantic propagates eastward, it also leads the cold air to transport southward. Cold air from high latitudes and warm air from low latitudes converge in southern China, which affects the quasi-biweekly oscillation of precipitation. Hysteresis synthesis of precipitation based on 500 hPa geopotential height’s quasi-biweekly oscillation events over the North Atlantic Ocean comes to almost the same conclusion. Therefore, the 500 hPa geopotential height quasi-biweekly anomaly in the North Atlantic may have important prediction significance for an extended-range forecast of summer rainfall in China.

Variations of Arctic winter ozone from the LIMS Level 3 dataset

The Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) instrument operated from October 25, 1978, through May 28, 1979. Its Version 6 (V6) profiles and their Level 3 or zonal Fourier coefficient products have been characterized and archived in 2008 and in 2011, respectively. This paper focuses on the value and use of daily ozone maps from Level 3, based on a gridding of its zonal coefficients. We present maps of V6 ozone on pressure surfaces and compare them with several rocket-borne chemiluminescent ozone measurements that extend into the lower mesosphere. Daily, synoptic maps of V6 ozone and temperature illustrate that they are an important aid in interpreting satellite limb-infrared emission versus local measurements, especially when they occur during dynamically active periods of northern hemisphere winter. We then show a sequence of V6 maps of upper stratospheric ozone, spanning the minor stratospheric warmings of late January and early February 1979. The map sequence of V6 geopotential height reveals how ozone was changing in the vortex and at the centers of adjacent anticyclones. We also report on zonal variations of the tertiary ozone maximum of the upper mesosphere and its associated temperature fields during winter. These several examples provide a guide to researchers for further exploratory analyses of middle atmosphere ozone from LIMS.