scholarly journals Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 5031-5044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Bloemendaal ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Reindert J. Haarsma ◽  
Martin Verlaan ◽  
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Global Modeling

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (19) ◽  
pp. 9910-9917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kohei Yoshida ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

scholarly journals A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Thomas R. Knutson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.

Impacts of Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Derived from Himawari-8 on Tropical Cyclone Forecast in HWRF

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (10) ◽  
pp. 3721-3740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Sawada ◽  
Zaizhong Ma ◽  
Avichal Mehra ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Ryo Oyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors

Abstract The impact of the assimilation of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts has been investigated. The high-resolution AMVs are derived from the full disk scan of the new generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8. Forecast experiments for three TCs in 2016 in a western North Pacific basin are performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF). Two different ensemble–variational hybrid data assimilation configurations (using background error covariance created by global ensemble forecast and HWRF ensemble forecast), based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), are used for the sensitivity experiments. The results show that the inclusion of high-resolution Himawari-8 AMVs (H8AMV) can benefit the track forecast skill, especially for long-range lead times. The diagnosis of optimal steering flow indicates that the improved track forecast seems to be attributed to the improvement of initial steering flow surrounding the TC. However, the assimilation of H8AMV increases the negative intensity bias and error, especially for short-range forecast lead times. The investigation of the structural change from the assimilation of H8AMV revealed that the following two factors are likely related to this degradation: 1) an increase of inertial stability outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW), which weakens the boundary layer inflow; and 2) a drying around and outside the RMW. Assimilating H8AMV using background error covariance created from HWRF ensemble forecast contributes to a significant reduction in negative intensity bias and error, and there is a significant benefit to TC size forecast.

scholarly journals On the Spectra of Gravity Waves Generated by Two Typical Convective Systems

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 405
Author(s):  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Lifeng Zhang ◽  
Jun Peng ◽  
Yun Zhang ◽  
Tongfeng Wei
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Spectral Distributions ◽  
The Waves

Spectral characteristics of lower-stratospheric gravity waves generated in idealized mei-yu front and tropical cyclone (TC) are compared by performing high-resolution simulations. The results suggest that the systems which organize convection in different forms can generate waves with distinctly different presentation. The mei-yu front appears as a linear zonal wave source and gravity waves are dominated by cross-frontal (meridional) propagating components. The northward (southward) components have dominant meridional wavelengths of 125–333 km (>250 km), periods of 100–200 min (83–143 min), and phase speeds of 0–15 m s−1 (15–20 m s−1). The TC appears as a point wave source and gravity waves propagate equally in various horizontal directions. The waves exhibit greater power and broader spectral distributions compared with those in the mei-yu front, with dominant horizontal wavelengths longer than 62.5 km, periods of 33–600 min, and phase speeds slower than ~40 m s−1.

scholarly journals Improvement of the Numerical Tropical Cyclone Prediction System at the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan: TWRF (Typhoon WRF)

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 657
Author(s):  
Ling-Feng Hsiao ◽  
Der-Song Chen ◽  
Jing-Shan Hong ◽  
Tien-Chiang Yeh ◽  
Chin-Tzu Fong
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Weather Bureau ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Central Weather Bureau ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tc Prediction

Typhoon WRF (TWRF) based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW WRF) was operational at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) for tropical cyclone (TC) predictions since 2010 (named TWRF V1). CWB has committed to improve this regional model, aiming to increase the model predictability toward typhoons over East Asia. In 2016, an upgraded version designed to replace TWRF V1 became operational (named TWRF V2). Compared with V1, which has triple-nested meshes with coarser resolution (45/15/5 km), V2 increased the model resolution to 15/3 km. Since V1 and V2 were maintained in parallel from 2016 to 2018, this study utilized the real-time forecasts to investigate the impact of model resolution on TC prediction. Statistical measures pointed out the superiority of the high-resolution model on TC prediction. The forecast performance was also found competitive with that of two leading global models. The case study further pointed out, with the higher resolution, the model not only advanced the prediction on the TC track and inner core structure but also improved the representativeness of the complex terrain. Overall, the high-resolution model can better handle the so-called terrain phase-lock effect and, therefore, improve the TC quantitative precipitation forecast over the complex Taiwanese terrain.

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