scholarly journals A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Thomas R. Knutson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.

scholarly journals Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8269-8288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Semedo ◽  
Ralf Weisse ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Andreas Sterl ◽  
Lennart Bengtsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air–sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

scholarly journals Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8281-8303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran Bhatia ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Seth Underwood ◽  
James Kossin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Control Experiment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Twenty First Century

As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986–2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016–35 or 2081–2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR’s unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type.

scholarly journals Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7203-7224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas R. Knutson ◽  
Joseph J. Sirutis ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Robert E. Tuleya ◽  
Morris Bender ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., “cold wake” generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980–2008) for a “control run” with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble. In general agreement with most previous studies, projections with this framework indicate fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-twenty-first-century climate, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates, and the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms. While these changes are apparent in the globally averaged tropical cyclone statistics, they are not necessarily present in each individual basin. The interbasin variation of changes in most of the tropical cyclone metrics examined is directly correlated to the variation in magnitude of SST increases between the basins. Finally, the framework is shown to be capable of reproducing both the observed global distribution of outer storm size—albeit with a slight high bias—and its interbasin variability. Projected median size is found to remain nearly constant globally, with increases in most basins offset by decreases in the northwest Pacific.

Simulated Climate and Climate Change in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 2755-2781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Whit Anderson ◽  
Alistair J. Adcroft ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The authors present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.5 (GFDL CM2.5)]. The GFDL CM2.5 has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 km in the tropics to 8 km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes. Analyses are presented based on the output of a 280-yr control simulation; also presented are results based on a 140-yr simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% yr−1 until doubling after 70 yr. Results are compared to GFDL CM2.1, which has somewhat similar physics but a coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5. The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.

scholarly journals The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 2739-2756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Eastern North Atlantic

This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.

Simulating erosion hazard maps under climate change and land use change for the early twenty-first century in northern Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloofar Rasoolzadeh-Darzi ◽  
Hassan Ahmad ◽  
Abolfazl Moeini ◽  
Baharak Motamedvaziri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
First Century ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Northern Iran ◽  
Erosion Hazard ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Twenty First Century

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

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