Bayesian estimation of intensity–duration–frequency curves and of the return period associated to a given rainfall event

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Huard ◽  
Alain Mailhot ◽  
Sophie Duchesne
2000 ◽  
Vol 31 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 357-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Elíasson

The M5 method, originally proposed by the Natural Resource Council in UK, is used for estimating precipitation in Iceland. In this method the M5 (24-hour precipitation with 5-year return period) is used as an index variable. Instead of the usual approach in estimating regional values of the coefficient of variation another coefficient, Ci is used. The M5 and the Ci define together a generalised distribution that can be utilised to estimate the statistical distribution of precipitation anywhere in the country. M5 maps have been prepared for this purpose by the Engineering Research Institute of the University of Iceland. Methods have been devised to derive PMP values from the M5 values. This paper describes the method and gives examples of calculation. It is also shown that the same CDF applies for the observations of shorter duration precipitation available in Iceland. By applying the principle of identical statistical distribution for standardised annual maxima of any duration, IDF (Intensity – Duration – Frequency) curves have been derived. This allows the IDF – values to be calculated on basis of M5 and Ci, which are the two-parameters that define the generalised precipitation distribution.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 2389-2404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Efrat Morin ◽  
Nadav Peleg ◽  
Yiwen Mei ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou

Abstract. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are widely used to quantify the probability of occurrence of rainfall extremes. The usual rain gauge-based approach provides accurate curves for a specific location, but uncertainties arise when ungauged regions are examined or catchment-scale information is required. Remote sensing rainfall records, e.g. from weather radars and satellites, are recently becoming available, providing high-resolution estimates at regional or even global scales; their uncertainty and implications on water resources applications urge to be investigated. This study compares IDF curves from radar and satellite (CMORPH) estimates over the eastern Mediterranean (covering Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid climates) and quantifies the uncertainty related to their limited record on varying climates. We show that radar identifies thicker-tailed distributions than satellite, in particular for short durations, and that the tail of the distributions depends on the spatial and temporal aggregation scales. The spatial correlation between radar IDF and satellite IDF is as high as 0.7 for 2–5-year return period and decreases with longer return periods, especially for short durations. The uncertainty related to the use of short records is important when the record length is comparable to the return period ( ∼  50,  ∼  100, and  ∼  150 % for Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid climates, respectively). The agreement between IDF curves derived from different sensors on Mediterranean and, to a good extent, semiarid climates, demonstrates the potential of remote sensing datasets and instils confidence on their quantitative use for ungauged areas of the Earth.


2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bengtsson

The runoff from real 3 cm thick sedum-moss roofs and from laboratory roof plots in southern Sweden is measured and analysed. Real rains and artificial storms are used for the analysis. The probability of high runoff is compared with the probability of high precipitation intensity. Intensity–duration–frequency curves for runoff are derived and it is found that the runoff of 1.5 year return period corresponds to rain of 0.4 year return period. The storage of water in the soil–vegetation cover on the roof is determined. The storage at field capacity, when runoff is initiated, is about 9 mm. Water in excess of that is temporary stored during storms. The runoff distribution during prolonged storms can be related to the mean rain intensity over 20–30 min. The influence of the slope and length of the roof on the runoff peak is investigated as is the effect of the drainage layer. Neither slope nor length seems to significantly influence the runoff distribution, which indicates that the vertical percolation process through the vegetation and the soil dominates the rainfall–runoff process. The presence of a drainage layer below the soil results in somewhat faster runoff compared to when there is no drainage layer, and thus results in an increased runoff peak.


1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 207-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frans H M van de Ven

Twelve year records of rainfall and of sewer inflow data in a housing area and in a parking lot in Lelystad were available. These data series contained 5-minute depths of rainfall and sewer inflow. Depth-duration-frequency curves were calculated from the monthly extremes, using Box-Cox transformation and a Gumbel distribution. The differences between the curves for rainfall and for inflow are explained by inertia and rainfall losses. These differences are the reason to use inflow as a sewer design parameter. Forthe choice of the design discharge (or inflow) intensity the curves are not well suited. Storage-design,discharge-frequency curves proved to be better interprétable. The selected design discharge is 4 or 5 m3/s/km2. For non-steady flow calculations in sewer systems an inflow profile has to be provided. The prof ileshould be peaked. The most common location of the peak lies between 20 and 50% of the event duration. The return period of the profile has to be known. A bivariate extreme value distribution is used to estimate this return period. From these distributions synthetic inflow profiles could be calculated.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 05021005
Author(s):  
Amin Mohebbi ◽  
Simin Akbariyeh ◽  
Montasir Maruf ◽  
Ziyan Wu ◽  
Juan Carlos Acuna ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Courty ◽  
Robert Wilby ◽  
John Hillier ◽  
Louise Slater

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