Predation is the most common cause of nest failure in birds. While nest
predation is relatively well studied in general, our knowledge is
unevenly distributed across globe and taxa, with for example limited
information on shorebirds breeding in sub-tropics. Importantly, we know
fairly little about the timing of predation within a day and season.
Here, we followed 499 nests of red-wattled lapwings (Vanellus indicus),
a ground-nesting shorebird, to estimate a nest predation rate, and
continuously monitored 231 of these nests for a sum of 2951 days to
reveal how timing of predation changes over the day and season in a
sub-tropical desert. We found that 324 nests hatched, 77 nests were
predated, 38 failed for other reasons and 60 had unknown fate. Daily
predation rate was 0.97% (95%CrI: 0.77% – 1.2%), which for a 30-day
long incubation period translates into ~25% chance of
nest being predated. Such predation rate is low compared to most other
species. Predation events were distributed evenly across day and night,
with a tendency for increased predation around sunrise. Predation rate
and events were distributed evenly also across the season, although
night predation was more common later in the season, perhaps because
predators reduce their activity during daylight to avoid extreme heat.
Indeed, nests were never predated upon when mid-day ground temperatures
exceeded 45°C. Whether the activity pattern of predators indeed changes
across the breeding season and whether the described predation patterns
hold for other populations, species and geographical regions awaits
future investigations.