Remaining useful life (RUL) is a crucial indictor to measure the performance degradation of machine tools. It directly affects the accuracy of maintenance decision-making, thus affecting operational reliability of machine tools. Currently, most RUL prediction methods are for the parts. However, due to the interaction among the parts, even RUL of all the parts cannot reflect the real RUL of the whole machine. Therefore, an RUL prediction method for the whole machine is needed. To predict RUL of the whole machine, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method with dynamic prediction objects based on meta-action theory. Firstly, machine tools are decomposed into the meta-action unit chains (MUCs) to obtain suitable prediction objects. Secondly, the machining precision unqualified rate (MPUR) control chart is used to conduct an out of control early warning for machine tools’ performance. At last, the Markov model is introduced to determine the prediction objects in next prediction and the Wiener degradation model is established to predict RUL of machine tools. According to the practical application, feasibility and effectiveness of the method is proved.
A Fusion Prognostic Method for Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on an Extended Belief Rule Base and Particle Filters
